Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
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Michigan's 10th District margin of victory
The odds
3.24median
-117
Median 3.24
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.73 on Oct 20, 3.24 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines, 2+ pts | 57% | ▼ 7 | 52¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 2.0K |
| Hines, 5+ pts | 40% | ▼ 5 | 35¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 580 |
| Hines, 8+ pts | 25% | ▼ 3 | 20¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 1.1K |
| Hines, 11+ pts | 12% | ▼ 2 | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 150 |
| Hines, 14+ pts | 6% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 500 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Michigan
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2026 Midterm Elections: Trump, Obama Rally MichiganPresident Donald Trump is set to campaign in Michigan as Democrats deploy Barack Obama and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while a Justice Department lawsuit threatens to complicate the closely watched Alaska Senate race. President Donald Trump… -
Trump leans into Islamophobic rhetoric at Michigan rallyPresident Donald Trump embraced Islamophobic rhetoric Sunday as he rallied in Port Huron, Michigan, in support of the state’s Republican candidates, including the GOP Senate nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers. Trump alleged that Abdul… -
Trump attacks Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan campaign stopCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
Rapper Nikki Minaj joins Trump onstage at Michigan rallyRapper Nikki Minaj said President Donald Trump has "changed the energy of the country" as she joined him at a Michigan rally to stump for Republicans ahead of the nationwide midterm elections. "He's given us a future to look forward to,"… -
WATCH LIVE: Trump delivers remarks at rally in MichiganPresident Trump delivers remarks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan ahead of midterms. WATCH LIVE: Trump delivers remarks at rally in Michigan President Trump delivers remarks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan ahead of midterms. -
Trump calls Michigan Senate candidate El-Sayed a ‘jihadist’President Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, about Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, his family’s alleged support for terrorist organizations and Trump’s characterization of El-Sayed as a ‘jihadist.’ Trump… -
Kyle Kuzma pushes back on Obama's Michigan rally messageMilwaukee Bucks forward Kyle Kuzma is speaking out about politics in his home state. The Flint, Michigan, native criticized part of former President Barack Obama's message during a Democratic campaign rally Saturday in Detroit, Yahoo!… -
President Trump rallies for Michigan Republicans at Port Huron gatheringOctober 25, 2026 / 5:58 PM EDT / CBS Detroit President Trump is making his case for Republican candidates in Michigan; he spoke at a rally in Port Huron on Sunday ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections. During his speech at McMorran Place… -
Trump introduces ‘queen of rap’ Nicki Minaj at Michigan rallyRapper Nicki Minaj joins President Donald Trump onstage at a Michigan rally in the final stretch before the 2026 midterm elections. Trump introduces ‘queen of rap’ Nicki Minaj at Michigan rally Rapper Nicki Minaj joins President Donald… -
Donald Trump Compliments Nicki Minaj’s Body at Michigan RallyOct 25, 2026 at 04:53 PM EDT President Donald Trump made an unexpected remark about rapper Nicki Minaj’s appearance during a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, on Sunday, briefly turning attention away from his midterm campaign message. After… -
President Trump speaks out against Abdul El-Sayed in MichiganCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
Trump blasts Ilhan Omar as ‘little troublemaker’ at Michigan rallyPresident Trump criticized Omar’s opposition to his administration and repeated allegations that she used a fake name. Trump blasts Ilhan Omar as ‘little troublemaker’ at Michigan rally President Trump criticized Omar’s opposition to his…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions