Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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Michigan's 7th District margin of victory
The odds
4.20median
-219
Median 4.20
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.56 on Oct 20, 4.20 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence, 1+ pts | 69% | ▼ 1 | 65¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 4.0K |
| Lawrence, 4+ pts | 52% | ▲ 2 | 49¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 4.3K |
| Lawrence, 7+ pts | 30% | ▲ 1 | 25¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 4.9K |
| Lawrence, 10+ pts | 16% | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 1.2K | |
| Lawrence, 13+ pts | 6% | 1¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| Lawrence, 16+ pts | 4% | 0¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 1.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Michigan
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2026 Midterm Elections: Trump, Obama Rally MichiganPresident Donald Trump is set to campaign in Michigan as Democrats deploy Barack Obama and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while a Justice Department lawsuit threatens to complicate the closely watched Alaska Senate race. President Donald Trump… -
Trump Claims Obama's Michigan Rally Was 'Empty': What The Photos ShowOct 25, 2026 at 09:02 AM EDT President Trump told supporters that a rally addressed by former President Barack Obama in Detroit, Michigan, was "empty" during his own rally in Georgia. Obama was in Michigan to support Democratic Senate… -
Abdul El-Sayed takes swipe at Trump ahead of Michigan rallyDemocratic Senate nominee in Michigan Abdul El-Sayed tells reporters on eve of president's rally that Trump will praise tariffs, Iran war and 'big ugly bill' during Michigan visit. Abdul El-Sayed takes swipe at Trump ahead of Michigan… -
Former President Barack Obama campaigns for Michigan Democrats at Detroit rallyOctober 24, 2026 / 8:27 PM EDT / CBS Detroit With a little over a week to go before the midterm elections, all eyes are on Michigan as a battleground state. Former President Barack Obama was in Detroit Saturday to drum up voter support for… -
Michigan sheriff to leaves Democratic Party over shift to the leftSaginaw County Sheriff William Federspiel joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discusses leaving the Democratic Party and endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race. Michigan sheriff to leaves Democratic Party over shift to… -
These years of Democratic leadership have failed us, Michigan gubernatorial candidate saysFox News These years of Democratic leadership have failed us, Michigan gubernatorial candidate says Michigan gubernatorial candidate John James discusses the key issues he’s honing in on ahead of his election on ‘The Big Weekend Show.’ -
Obama throws support behind El-Sayed as early voting begins in Michigan – videoBarack Obama headlined a rally for Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for the US Senate, in Detroit on the first day of early voting in Michigan. The former US president told thousands of supporters at Cass technical high school that… -
Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed blasts Trump ahead of president's battleground state visitFox News Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed blasts Trump ahead of president's battleground state visit Michigan Democrat Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed tells Fox News Digital that former President Barack Obama reminds voters of a president… -
Obama seeks to shore up Abdul El-Sayed with Black voters at Michigan rallyFormer President Barack Obama rallied for Michigan’s Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed in Detroit on Saturday as the bitterly fought contest could come down to the city’s substantial Black vote. “We’re clear about the choice in this… -
Detroit residents turn out for first day of early in-person voting in MichiganOctober 24, 2026 / 8:04 PM EDT / CBS Detroit The first day of early in-person voting kicked off Saturday in Michigan. Through Nov. 1, you can beat the long lines by heading to an early voting site before Election Day. The Northwest… -
Political expert breaks down potential impact of Obama, Trump visiting MichiganOctober 23, 2026 / 11:45 PM EDT / CBS Detroit With the midterm election fast approaching, this weekend will see some of the most high-profile group of names visiting Michigan in a long time - former President Barack Obama and President… -
Michigan showdown: Rogers claims that El-Sayed is 'most extreme candidate in the United States'In a Fox News Digital interview on the Michigan campaign trail, GOP U.S. Senate nominee former Rep. Mike Rogers reveals his strategy to win over Democrats who aren't 'comfortable' with President Donald Trump. Michigan showdown: Rogers…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.7 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions