Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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Maryland's 3rd District margin of victory
The odds
32.5median
1646
Median 32.5Middle half 24.7 – 38.2
How the odds have moved
Median: 31.5 on Oct 19, 32.5 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfreth, 19+ pts | 94% | 91¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 30.00 | |
| Elfreth, 22+ pts | 86% | 81¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 100 | |
| Elfreth, 25+ pts | 74% | ▼ 1 | 71¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 109 |
| Elfreth, 28+ pts | 65% | 61¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | ||
| Elfreth, 31+ pts | 54% | 51¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | ||
| Elfreth, 34+ pts | 46% | 41¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 184 | |
| Elfreth, 37+ pts | 31% | 26¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | ||
| Elfreth, 40+ pts | 16% | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 214 | |
| Elfreth, 43+ pts | 8% | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Maryland
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Maryland voters turn out for first day of early voting: "It's what people have died for"October 22, 2026 / 6:04 PM EDT / CBS Baltimore Early voting is underway in Maryland, with voters heading to the polls to weigh in on key issues, including education, affordability, the race for governor and a controversial ballot question… -
Maryland members of Congress, elections officials targeted by suspicious lettersAlmost every member of Congress from Maryland, as well as the state’s elections office, received ominous letters filled with what turned out to be a nontoxic powder at one of their offices in the last week. It makes Maryland offices the… -
Maryland governor shares voters’ demands of Democrats: ‘Push forward’ past TrumpPresident Trump is trying to pitch voters on another two years of Republican control of Congress and he’s promising voters payouts if the GOP pulls off the unlikely victory. Maryland Governor Wes Moore (D) joins Antonia Hylton to share his… -
Maryland students react to firing of head football coach Mike LocksleyCBS News Baltimore is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WJZ-TV and channel 13, CBS News Baltimore offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Maryland… -
Maryland foster care facility faces scrutiny…A Harford County residential treatment facility serving young women in foster care is facing increased scrutiny after law enforcement records showed a sharp rise in calls for service and repeated incidents involving missing children. Biff… -
Maryland Athletics agrees to First Amendment training after student journalists reported to policeThe Maryland Terrapins Athletic Department hasn’t built a strong reputation for understanding the role of the free press this football season, and it sounds like they need a much-needed refresher. The Foundation for Individual Rights and… -
Opinion: Maryland’s Jewish Day Schools Can’t Afford to Sit This One OutTuition comes up in nearly every conversation I have. It comes up with parents, with grandparents and with school leaders working to keep Jewish education within reach for every family who wants it. Recently, I spoke with a parent whose… - Wes Moore Casts Early Ballot in Annapolis, MarylandMaryland Gov. Wes Moore and First Lady Dawn Moore walked into the Pip Moyer Recreation Center in Annapolis on Friday to cast their ballots, joining a wave of early voters that has already outpaced turnout from four years ago. The governor…
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Gubernatorial candidate Dan Cox calls for Maryland ban on new mega data centersUpdated on: October 21, 2026 / 5:36 PM EDT / CBS Baltimore Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Cox is calling for a statewide ban on new mega data centers. Standing at a news conference near a massive data center development Wednesday… -
Commitment 2026: Maryland early in-person voting tops 154K ballots after first 2 daysIt is Day 3 of in-person early voting on Saturday. Maryland Elections Administrator Jared DeMarinis said more than 77,000 people voted on Friday, matching a similar total on Thursday. | VOTERS GUIDE: What you need to know for the 2026… -
Maryland man accused of making fake bomb threats while drunk at Fort Lauderdale airportCBS News Miami is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WFOR-TV and channel 4, CBS News Miami offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Maryland man accused of… - Israeli defense firm chooses Virginia over Maryland for U.S. headquartersRobert Dyer @ Bethesda Row Saturday, October 24, 2026 Israeli defense firm chooses Virginia over Maryland for U.S. headquarters Well, blow me down! These type of companies clearly look for easy and immediate access to the Pentagon. With…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.7 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions