Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
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Kentucky's 3rd District margin of victory
The odds
29.9median
1444
Median 29.9Middle half 22.9 – 36.9
How the odds have moved
Median: 29.8 on Oct 20, 29.9 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McGarvey, 17+ pts | 94% | 92¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 2.4K | |
| McGarvey, 20+ pts | 86% | 82¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | ||
| McGarvey, 23+ pts | 75% | ▼ 1 | 70¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | |
| McGarvey, 26+ pts | 65% | 60¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 5.00 | |
| McGarvey, 29+ pts | 53% | ▼ 1 | 49¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 66.00 |
| McGarvey, 32+ pts | 43% | ▼ 1 | 38¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | |
| McGarvey, 35+ pts | 32% | ▼ 1 | 27¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 61.00 |
| McGarvey, 38+ pts | 21% | ▼ 1 | 17¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | |
| McGarvey, 41+ pts | 10% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kentucky
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The Kentucky Canary in the Coal Mine for RepublicansOct 24, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT When you think of Kentucky, you probably think of horse racing and bourbon. On election night, the state’s 6th Congressional District will be one of the first competitive House races out of the gate, and the… -
Slideshow: Kentucky football beats Vanderbilt 34-17The Kentucky Wildcats beat the Vanderbilt Commodores 34-17 during a game at Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky., on Saturday, Oct., 24, 2026. Sources close to the duchess said she warned her father last year that he would never meet his… -
Residents rally against plans for Kentucky data centerCNN's Donie O'Sullivan travels to Kentucky to speak with Americans revolting against AI data centers. Residents rally against plans for Kentucky data center CNN's Donie O'Sullivan travels to Kentucky to speak with Americans revolting… -
Kentucky Lottery Cash Ball, Pick 3 Evening winning numbers for Oct. 24, 2026Here's a look at Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 winning numbers for each game. 05-24-26-27, Cash Ball: 05 04-05-15-19-55, Powerball: 19, Power Play: 2 This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Lottery Cash Ball… -
‘What Is a Woman?’: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s Sexual Violence Post Sparks Hypocrisy BacklashThe video shows Beshear speaking at a podium during a press conference. In the footage, he states, “There is a culture not just on university campuses but across America. I mean, in Kentucky, the statistics are nearly one in two Kentucky… -
What's on your local ballot in Northern KentuckyIf you live in Kentucky, you have something to vote on this election. See which candidates and issues are on your ballot. The 2026 general election is set for Tuesday, Nov. 3, but voting will be available earlier for those who may not be… - Kentucky House Bill 380 Amendment Sparks Hardware Wallet Recovery ControversyKentucky legislators revised a crypto bill to establish hardware wallet recovery protocols. The Bitcoin Policy Institute contends the revision would compel device manufacturers to build backdoor access into their products. Advocates are…
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Former inmate says proposed Kentucky pardon restriction could harm wrongfully convicted peopleLOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB+WAVE) — Kentucky voters will decide whether to restrict one of the governor’s most powerful abilities: the power to pardon. A Louisville man said he would have died behind bars if the change had been in place when he… -
Kentucky voters to decide whether to limit governor’s pardon power before electionsFRANKFORT, Ky. (LEX NEWS) — Kentucky voters will decide whether to restrict a governor’s ability to issue pardons in the weeks surrounding an election, a proposal prompted by controversial pardons issued by former Gov. Matt Bevin in 2019… -
Court upholds Kentucky’s ban on child sex dolls after constitutional challengeAttorney General Russell Coleman, along with representatives from the Kentucky Multidisciplinary Commission on Child Sexual Abuse, released an updated protocol on how to handle child sexual abuse in the state. April 22, 2026. Attorney… -
Top stories in Lexington, Kentucky on Oct. 23, 2026Reports of several attacks in Bury St Edmunds are circulating on social media. Park Street in central Bristol is closed with a 50m cordon in place around the area. Four people were injured in the crash on Friday morning, which involved two… -
Democratic Rep. candidate for Kentucky’s 1st District connects with Hopkinsville voterstodayOctober 23, 2026 124 The race for U.S. Representative of Kentucky’s 1st Congressional District will be on the upcoming general election ballot, and Democratic candidate John “Drew” Williams visited Hopkinsville on Thursday to connect…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions