Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
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Kansas's 4th District margin of victory
The odds
14.7median
235
Median 14.7Middle half 9.04 – 20.1
How the odds have moved
Median: 15.7 on Oct 20, 14.7 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estes, 5+ pts | 90% | 85¢ | 95¢ | $1.06 | ||
| Estes, 8+ pts | 79% | ▼ 1 | 76¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 880 |
| Estes, 11+ pts | 68% | ▼ 1 | 63¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 691 |
| Estes, 14+ pts | 54% | ▼ 1 | 49¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | |
| Estes, 17+ pts | 39% | 34¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 303 | |
| Estes, 20+ pts | 26% | ▼ 1 | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 450 |
| Estes, 23+ pts | 15% | ▼ 1 | 11¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 911 |
| Estes, 26+ pts | 7% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 244 |
| Estes, 29+ pts | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | |||
| Estes, 32+ pts | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kansas
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The Church Abuse Allegations Shaking Kansas Senate RaceOct 23, 2026 at 12:43 PM EDT Allegations that the Democratic candidate failed to effectively investigate alleged sexual assaults targeting children more than 20 years ago have become a focal point in the closing weeks of the Kansas Senate… -
Exclusive / Dems make a Kansas play as GOP eyes a California seatDemocrat Don Coover is down by three points against incumbent Republican Rep. Derek Schmidt, within the 3.9% margin of error, according to Democratic polling conducted in mid-October and shared with Semafor. House Democrats are making a… -
Vance will return to Kansas as GOP worries it may lose Senate raceVice President JD Vance will head to Kansas next week for the second time in two months, seeking to boost the Republican candidate in what has become an unexpectedly competitive race for the U.S. Senate. He will rally in Topeka on Monday… -
Marshall, Hamilton clash in heated Kansas Senate debateCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Marshall, Hamilton… - Trump might be the best thing to happen to this Kansas DemocratBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The pastor is offering…
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Senate hopefuls face off in Michigan and KansasNBC News Senate hopefuls face off in Michigan and Kansas -
Marshall Faces Growing Kansas RevoltSen. Roger Marshall is heading into a fight he once seemed to underestimate, as economic frustration begins to cut into the political comfort of one of the nation’s reddest states. Marshall, a Trump loyalist and first-term senator from… -
Kansas Dem 'not sure' what AI regulations he supportsFox News Kansas Dem 'not sure' what AI regulations he supports Kansas Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton on Wednesday called for a federal commission to regulate artificial intelligence, but couldn't say what specific regulations he… -
Kansas Senate candidates debate trans athletes issue, answer how many genders there areFox News Kansas Senate candidates debate trans athletes issue, answer how many genders there are Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton answered questions on transgender athletes in women's sports… -
Kansas letters tackle SNAP, Republican leaders and animals | OpinionFood is a basic human right. No one should be denied access to food. Despite the efforts of food banks and churches, it is impossible to replace government funding which provides seven times as many meals as the private sector can. SNAP… -
The GOP is on a rescue mission in Kansas, where Dems haven't won a Senate race in nearly a centuryBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Republicans have won… -
Lawsuit over Chiefs stadium move to Kansas droppedTOPEKA – Governor Laura Kelly and Mayor Christal Watson jointly announced Friday that the Unified Government (UG) of Wyandotte County/Kansas City and the State of Kansas have satisfactorily resolved concerns related to the Kansas City…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions