Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
Install
Indiana's 8th District margin of victory
The odds
19.9median
1444
Median 19.9
How the odds have moved
Median: 28.1 on Oct 19, 19.9 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Messmer, 17+ pts | 64% | ▲ 13 | 59¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | 5.00 |
| Messmer, 20+ pts | 50% | ▲ 14 | 45¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 5.00 |
| Messmer, 23+ pts | 36% | ▲ 13 | 31¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 205 |
| Messmer, 26+ pts | 25% | ▲ 12 | 20¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 205 |
| Messmer, 29+ pts | 17% | ▲ 11 | 13¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 205 |
| Messmer, 32+ pts | 7% | ▲ 3 | 2¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 57.00 |
| Messmer, 35+ pts | 4% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | $12.82 | 253 | |
| Messmer, 38+ pts | 3% | 6¢ | $17.54 | |||
| Messmer, 41+ pts | 3% | 5¢ | $19.61 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Indiana
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Indiana school bus driver gets children out of bus just before it goes up in flamesCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. School bus driver… -
‘All INdiana Politics’: Engling, Ballard clash over restoring credibility to Indiana Secretary of State OfficeINDIANAPOLIS — On Sunday’s edition of “All INdiana Politics,” Government Reporter Garrett Bergquist sat down with two candidates who are running for secretary of state, Republican Max Engling and independent Greg Ballard. Both candidates… -
GUEST COLUMN: Indiana’s constitutional amendment is an excuse to detain minoritiesEditor's note: All opinions, columns and letters reflect the views of the individual writer and not necessarily those of the IDS or its staffers. As the state constitution currently stands, only those charged with murder or treason can be… - Learn about Indiana's new Medicaid work requirementsINDIANAPOLIS (MIRROR INDY) — Shepherd Community Center will host information sessions about Indiana's new Medicaid work requirements on Oct. 28 and Nov. 7. The changes impact the Healthy Indiana Plan, which covers low-income adults between…
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Here are 9 races to watch in Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana in midterm electionVoting booths at a polling location at the Thomasville Library during the last day of early voting in Thomasville, North Carolina, US, on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The 2026 midterm elections are shaping up to be a hugely consequential battle… -
ACLU of Indiana delays start of new executive after launching independent review(Inside INdiana Business) - The ACLU of Indiana is delaying the start date for new executive director Nikkita Oliver due to “conflicting reports and inaccurate rumors” among current staff, the organization’s board told The Indiana Lawyer… - Tyler Bridges Challenges Aylesworth in Indiana House District 11Two data centers are proposed within House District 11, and Bridges said large businesses want to put them on farmland rather than industrial areas. He has attended various board meetings to hear directly from elected officials and the…
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Ballard takes Indiana Election Commission to courtIndiana’s secretary of state race landed in court Friday afternoon with a recurring theme: holding state candidates and election officials accountable. Independent candidate Greg Ballard sued the Indiana Election Commission last week… -
Two familiar faces seek Indiana House District 10 seatAssistant Police Chief Ted Uzelac, a Republican former Portage City Council member, is challenging longtime state Rep. Chuck Moseley, a Democrat, in House District 10. Moseley said he’s working on a bill that creates penalties for anyone… -
Democrats seek gains in Republican-controlled Indiana SenateOnly a handful of races are truly competitive in this year’s Indiana Senate elections, with most of the money flowing to a northwest Indiana district and a suburban Indianapolis contest. Democrats are hoping to flip Senate District 1 and… -
Indiana lawmaker resigning after shoplifting allegations — blames ‘cognitive’ decline for string of Walmart swipesHe’s got sticky fingers! An Indiana lawmaker is stepping down after allegedly shoplifting from multiple Walmart stores — and then blaming his lapse in judgment on cognitive decline. State Sen. Ron Alting, a Republican, was reportedly… -
The Amish have historically never voted. That’s changing in IndianaINDIANA (Free Press Indiana) - Indiana state Rep. Joanna King grew up in an Amish family that believed voting went against their faith-based conviction that members should stay separate from the world. “They really feel like their…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions