Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
Install
Illinois Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
20.3median
733
Median 20.3Middle half 14.4 – 26.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 20.4 on Oct 19, 20.3 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratton, 9+ pts | 89% | 84¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 5.00 | |
| Stratton, 11+ pts | 87% | 84¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 5.00 | |
| Stratton, 13+ pts | 80% | 77¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 62.00 | |
| Stratton, 15+ pts | 73% | 69¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 39.00 | |
| Stratton, 17+ pts | 64% | 59¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 716 | |
| Stratton, 19+ pts | 56% | 51¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 200 | |
| Stratton, 21+ pts | 47% | 42¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | 18.00 | |
| Stratton, 23+ pts | 38% | 33¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Stratton, 25+ pts | 30% | 25¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 5.00 | |
| Stratton, 27+ pts | 23% | 18¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | ||
| Stratton, 29+ pts | 17% | 12¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 200 | |
| Stratton, 31+ pts | 11% | 6¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 4.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Illinois Senate
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Trump looms in Illinois Senate debateShia Kapos' must-read rundown of political news in the Land of Lincoln 10/21/2026 08:00 AM EDT Good Wednesday morning, Illinois. Politics in this state has never been for the faint of heart. Republican Don Tracy and Democrat Juliana… -
University of Illinois Senate plans to review Flock automated license plate reader contractIPM Newsroom University of Illinois Senate plans to review Flock automated license plate reader contract Reports of police using Flock cameras to track current or former romantic partners have prompted a national backlash. Illinois has… -
Stratton Leads Tracy in Illinois Senate RaceActiVote’s October 20, 2026 Illinois U.S. Senate poll finds that Democrat Juliana Stratton leads Republican Don Tracy by 17.0%. The poll was in the field between September 26 and October 20 (median field date of October 8). The poll was… -
Election 2026: Illinois Senate 18th District Candidage Christine McGovernOAK LAWN, IL—GOP candidate Christine McGovern, of Oak Lawn, is running for an open seat in the 18th District Senate race. The 2026 Gubernatorial Election is Nov. 3. The 18th District covers all or parts of Alsip, Chicago Ridge, Evergreen… -
Crypto is making a splash in U.S. elections — but chiefly in jabs about industry influenceCrypto is finally being talked about in U.S. political campaigns, but it's certainly not in a light that the industry would choose. A number of Democratic candidates have raised crypto as a black mark to suggest improper corporate sway… -
Cook County assessor favorite Patrick Hynes vows ‘stability,’ detente with appeals boardIn 2020, Patrick Hynes walked out of the Cook County assessor’s office, frustrated, he said, with then-boss Fritz Kaegi’s leadership. In March, he ousted Kaegi in the Democratic primary. In December, he expects to return to the office as… -
Taxes, data centers among topics in Illinois Senate race in 42nd DistrictEditor’s note: This is one in a series of stories looking at contested races in the Nov. 3 general election. The race for the Illinois Senate seat in the 42nd District is between Democrat Jared Ploger and Republican Edgardo Perez. The… -
What should open next in the Quad-Cities? We want your opinionIf you could bring one new business to the Quad-Cities, what would it be? Vote in our poll and share your pick. Davenport City Attorney Sam Huff will depart the city Nov. 6 for a "new opportunity." Election Day is coming. We've put… -
State lawmakers: Cornell shows why Illinois needs to hold colleges accountableThis fall, the country has been horrified by the story of a former Cornell University student who reported being drugged and sexually assaulted by seven fraternity members in 2024. In a recent lawsuit, the student alleges the university… -
Juliana Stratton, Don Tracy debate affordability, Iran as U.S. Senate race heats upIllinois’ Senate race continues to heat up, as Juliana Stratton and Don Tracy spar over immigration, affordability issues and more, as they told Mary Ann Ahern. The race to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin is heating up, as Illinois Lt… -
Governor battle leads statewide racesois features Gov. JB Pritzker, a Democrat, seeking a rare third term in office, among other contested statewide races. Pritzker won governorship in 2018 and in 2022. He seeks to be the first governor in more than four decades to win a…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.7 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions