Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.7median
1560
Median 25.7Middle half 20.5 – 30.8
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Illinois's 12th District margin of victory
The odds
37.8median
2053
Median 37.8Middle half 32.9 – 42.7
How the odds have moved
Median: 36.7 on Oct 20, 37.8 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bost, 23+ pts | 95% | ▼ 1 | 93¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | |
| Bost, 26+ pts | 95% | ▼ 1 | 91¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 1.4K |
| Bost, 29+ pts | 90% | 86¢ | 95¢ | $1.06 | 135 | |
| Bost, 32+ pts | 79% | 74¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 50.00 | |
| Bost, 35+ pts | 65% | ▲ 1 | 60¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 113 |
| Bost, 38+ pts | 49% | ▲ 3 | 44¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | |
| Bost, 41+ pts | 33% | 28¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 146 | |
| Bost, 44+ pts | 19% | 14¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 300 | |
| Bost, 47+ pts | 9% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 70.00 |
| Bost, 50+ pts | 4% | 8¢ | $12.20 | 147 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Illinois
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Illinois voters consider new state without ChicagoIllinois Separation director Loret Newlin discusses the possibility of creating a new state without Chicago, feedback from voters regarding the measure and more. Illinois voters consider new state without Chicago Illinois Separation… -
High diesel prices hurting Illinois farms during harvest seasonThe Illinois farming community is sounding the alarm about the impact of sky-high diesel prices. It's been tough at the pump for everyone for months, but with diesel prices still at record highs, farmers said they are spending twice as… -
Voters In Illinois To Decide On Push For New StateOct 26, 2026 at 02:53 PM EDT Illinois counties are exploring ways to split the state and form a new state outside Chicago’s Cook County, and the movement seems to be gaining momentum. On November 3, when Americans head to the ballot box to… -
Illinois residents push to separate from Chicago over political frustrationsLoret Newlin, director of Illinois Separation, discussed the push to form a new state amid frustration over Chicago's political influence and Illinois' criminal justice policies. Illinois residents push to separate from Chicago over… -
Illinois U.S. Senate seat among races in 2026 midterm electionsCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Illinois U.S. Senate seat… -
Illinois Lottery reports $3.87 billion in lottery tickets sold in 2026CBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Illinois Lottery reports… -
Illinois ballots will include several advisory referenda during 2026 midterm electionsOctober 26, 2026 / 4:24 PM CDT / CBS Chicago The 2026 midterm elections are on Nov. 3, and Illinois voters will find more than just candidates in the big races on their ballots. Voters also will be asked to weigh in on several advisory… -
Downstate Illinois man arrested for sending suspicious letters to Chicago area members of CongressCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Downstate Illinois man… -
What are some of the referenda Illinois voters will see on their ballots on Election Day?The 2026 midterm elections are on Nov. 3, and Illinois voters will find more than just candidates in the big races on their ballots. Voters also will be asked to weigh in on several advisory referenda about potential new laws. What are… -
Frustrated Illinois residents seek to redraw state map in bid to break free from ChicagoLoret Newlin, director of Illinois Separation, discussed the push to form a new state amid frustration over Chicago's political influence and Illinois' criminal justice policies. Frustrated Illinois residents are pushing to break away from… -
"The Angle:" Illinois U.S. Senate speaks, experts weigh in on mayoral race and Chicago budgetDemocratic Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and former Illinois Republican Party chair Don Tracy are running to replace U.S. Dick Durbin, and they have two very different visions for the future. Chris Tye recently talked to each. Also… -
Illinois Quick Hits: Trump endorses Illinois candidates(The Center Square) – President Donald Trump released a series of posts late last week endorsing multiple statewide Republican candidates. The president’s endorsements included Darren Bailey for governor, Mike Bost, Darin LaHood and Mary…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
23%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.1median
2454
Median 38.1Middle half 33.2 – 43.2
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
57median
4272
Median 57Middle half 52.4 – 61.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.7median
737
Median 23.7Middle half 18.6 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.7 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions