Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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Illinois's 4th District margin of victory
The odds
36.5median
2454
Median 36.5Middle half 31.4 – 40.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 35.4 on Oct 20, 36.5 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garcia, 27+ pts | 89% | ▼ 5 | 84¢ | 93¢ | $1.07 | 3.6K |
| Garcia, 30+ pts | 81% | ▼ 6 | 77¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 5.00 |
| Garcia, 33+ pts | 69% | ▼ 6 | 64¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | |
| Garcia, 36+ pts | 53% | ▼ 4 | 48¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | |
| Garcia, 39+ pts | 35% | ▼ 2 | 30¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 200 |
| Garcia, 42+ pts | 18% | ▼ 2 | 13¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 100 |
| Garcia, 45+ pts | 8% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 190 |
| Garcia, 48+ pts | 4% | 8¢ | $13.33 | 5.00 | ||
| Garcia, 51+ pts | 3% | 6¢ | $18.18 | 3.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Illinois
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"The Angle:" Illinois U.S. Senate speaks, experts weigh in on mayoral race and Chicago budgetDemocratic Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and former Illinois Republican Party chair Don Tracy are running to replace U.S. Dick Durbin, and they have two very different visions for the future. Chris Tye recently talked to each. Also… -
Illinois statewide races: Little-known GOP slate faces uphill battle against mostly incumbent DemsUpdated on: October 23, 2026 / 7:23 PM CDT / CBS Chicago When Illinois' Democrats gathered for their annual rally at the state fair in August, they reached from one end of the stage to the other. The party's candidates have occupied all… -
Chicago's 12-language ballots make elections 'harder to monitor,' Illinois GOP chair warnsFirst Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli examines the growing dispute over voter eligibility verification in California. Los Angeles County election officials acknowledge they lack the resources to verify the citizenship status of… -
Independent Audit Finds Persistent Accessibility Gaps Across Illinois Municipal Websites Ahead of 2027 Federal DeadlineUnder the DOJ’s updated ADA Title II rule, municipalities with populations over 50,000 must reach full WCAG 2.1 AA conformance by April 26, 2027. Municipalities under 50,000 have until April 26, 2028. “I reviewed 28 official Illinois city… -
Full interview with Don Tracy, Illinois Republican candidate for U.S. SenateCBS News Chicago political reporter Chris Tye sat down with former Illinois Republican Party chairman Don Tracy, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections, to discuss his candidacy and priorities. Full… -
Full interview with Juliana Stratton, Illinois Democratic candidate for U.S. SenateCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Full interview with… -
U.S. Senate race spotlight: Juliana Stratton vs. Don Tracy in IllinoisIn less than two weeks, Illinois voters will decide who will replace longtime U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, who is retiring after 30 years in office. The two candidates to replace him, Democratic Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and former… -
Illinois 2018 Election ResultsMultiState 2018 results › Illinois Another state… Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota… -
Illinois Quick Hits: Illinois employment continues moderate rise(The Center Square) – The unemployment rate in Illinois over September was 4.6%, down 0.1% from August, according to recently released Illinois Department of Employment Security data, meaning less Illinois residents were without a job last… -
LaHood, Cooke lead fundraising in Illinois, Wisconsin congressional racesCampaign finance records for the yearâs third quarter were due last week, and the fundraising totals in Illinois and Wisconsin show some interesting races as we reach the business end of election season. Campaign finance records for the… -
Basketball Museum of Illinois hosts Leadership Academy for student athletesCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Basketball Museum of… -
Juliana Stratton Takes Her Senate Campaign Statewide as Illinois Prepares for a High-Stakes ElectionIllinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton is working to turn her Democratic Senate nomination into a winning statewide coalition as she faces Republican nominee Don Tracy in the contest to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin. Stratton, who has…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.7 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions