Idaho Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $213 today · $4.4K traded · $3.1K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

14.1median
141
Median 14.1Middle half 7.11 – 19

How the odds have moved

Median: 8.72 on Oct 20, 14.1 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Risch, 3+ pts 90% ▼ 1 87¢ 93¢ $1.07 27.00
Risch, 5+ pts 83% ▼ 3 78¢ 88¢ $1.14 246
Risch, 7+ pts 76% ▼ 2 71¢ 80¢ $1.25 51.00
Risch, 9+ pts 67% ▼ 5 62¢ 71¢ $1.41 839
Risch, 11+ pts 59% ▼ 5 54¢ 64¢ $1.56 866
Risch, 13+ pts 54% ▼ 1 52¢ 56¢ $1.79 1.0K
Risch, 15+ pts 47% ▲ 2 46¢ 47¢ $2.13 1.5K
Risch, 17+ pts 36% ▼ 1 33¢ 38¢ $2.63 769
Risch, 19+ pts 25% ▼ 2 20¢ 30¢ $3.33 1.2K
Risch, 21+ pts 19% ▼ 1 15¢ 23¢ $4.35 3.0K
Risch, 23+ pts 16% ▲ 3 15¢ 17¢ $5.88 2.1K
Risch, 25+ pts 13% ▲ 4 12¢ 13¢ $7.69 960
Risch, 27+ pts 5% 0¢ 10¢ $10.10 868
Risch, 29+ pts 5% ▲ 1 3¢ 8¢ $12.66 1.3K
Risch, 31+ pts 5% ▲ 2 3¢ 7¢ $15.15 1.4K
Risch, 33+ pts 5% 3¢ 6¢ $16.95 757
Risch, 35+ pts 3% 5¢ $18.52 39.00
Risch, 37+ pts 3% 5¢ $19.23 205
Risch, 39+ pts 3% 5¢ $20.00 27.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Idaho Senate

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  • What’s up with the Idaho Senate race?NonStop Local KHQ · 3 days agoIDAHO - It’s a trend that’s taken on new life the election cycle, independent candidates running against establishment backed big names. Orion Donovan Smith, who's from Washington and writes for the The Spokesman-Review via the Report for…
  • Idaho senate candidates lay out prioritiesYahoo News · 4 days agoOct. 22—Idaho Sen. Jim Risch is seeking a fourth six-year term as issues surrounding affordability and persistent international conflict have risen to the fore alongside candidates looking to upend the state's decades-long streak of…
  • Democrat Ron Taylor seeks another term in Idaho Senate District 26The Times-News · 5 days agoPeople attended the District 26 Democrats: Affordability Town Hall event Tuesday to hear from three candidates about their campaigns and solutions in Jerome. Candidate Kevin Marsh, running for Idaho House Seat A, left, listens during an…
  • Valley County Election Preview: Brian Beckley vs. Jared Dawson for Idaho LegislatureValley Lookout · 5 days agoTwo candidates are competing in the Nov. 3 General Election for one of two seats representing Valley County in the Idaho House of Representatives. Brian Beckley, a Republican who defeated incumbent Rep. Faye Thompson, R-McCall, in the May…
  • Candidate forum set for todayBonner County Daily Bee · 7 days agoSANDPOINT — If you're looking to get to know local and state candidates, Tuesday's candidate forum is just the spot to do just that. Bonner County media and the Selkirk Association of Realtors are teaming up to help area voters do just…
  • Idaho Senate candidates take the stagemtexpress.com · 10 days agoBryan Hyde, R-Jerome, answers a question during Pizza & Politics on Wednesday. Seated to the right are Shaila Tate, I-Carey, center, and Ron Taylor, D-Hailey. Candidates for Idaho’s District 26 Senate seat gathered in the Mountain Humane…
  • Letters for Sunday, Oct. 18Spokesman.com · 10 days agoWhile working side-by-side as volunteers, I learned Karen and I share much in common. Over our lifetimes, we either experienced or saw various inequities and understood everyone deserves dignity, respect and a safe and healthy life…
  • This Married Lesbian Couple Is Running to Unseat Idaho’s Top Conservative LawmakersGO Magazine · 11 days agoA married lesbian couple is running for the Idaho state legislature as a team, one for the state’s House and one for its Senate. The two moms are running as Democrats in November’s election. Amanda Easley is running against Idaho House…
  • Jim Risch calls for Iran war to end as rising costs take center stage in Idaho Senate racePost Register · 13 days agoU.S. Sen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho, stands on the steps of the Idaho State Capitol Building on May 30. U.S. Sen. Jim Risch speaks at a lying in state service for former Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne at the Idaho State Capitol on May 15, 2026…
  • Regional candidates’ fundraising varies widelymtexpress.com · 12 days agoThe Idaho House of Representatives meets for a special session at the Statehouse in Boise in 2022. Funding raised and spent by candidates vying to represent Blaine County in the Legislature has varied widely. Candidates for elected office…
  • Impressed by this group of candidatesmtexpress.com · 12 days agoI recently had the opportunity to meet and hear from a group of candidates running to represent us in District 26, which includes Blaine, Jerome and Lincoln counties. Over my career I have lived in many parts of the country and met a wide…
  • Idaho Farm Bureau Strengthens Private Landowner Protections@farmbureau · 13 days agoFROM THE DESK OF High court rulings in several states that put strict constitutional limits on government agents’ power to enter private property prompted Idaho Farm Bureau to ask their members if this was a problem in Idaho. Their…

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