Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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Idaho's 2nd District margin of victory
The odds
19.2median
636
Median 19.2Middle half 13.5 – 24.6
How the odds have moved
Median: 19.4 on Oct 19, 19.2 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson, 9+ pts | 91% | 86¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | ||
| Simpson, 12+ pts | 81% | ▼ 1 | 77¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | |
| Simpson, 15+ pts | 70% | ▼ 1 | 65¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | |
| Simpson, 18+ pts | 56% | 51¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | ||
| Simpson, 21+ pts | 42% | ▲ 1 | 37¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 5.00 |
| Simpson, 24+ pts | 27% | 22¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 200 | |
| Simpson, 27+ pts | 17% | ▲ 1 | 13¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 205 |
| Simpson, 30+ pts | 7% | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 288 | |
| Simpson, 33+ pts | 4% | 0¢ | 8¢ | $12.20 | 210 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Idaho
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Idaho Sunshine Report reveals fundraising gaps among North Idaho legislative candidatesData in the Idaho Sunshine Report shows major differences in funding among North Idaho’s state congressional candidates. Many candidates seek individual support rather than business support, while some seek neither and have done little to… -
Idaho Liberty Bell coming to Coeur d’AleneIdaho’s replica of the Liberty Bell sits on the back of a Ford F-450 flatbed truck in front of the State Capitol. IDAHO STATE TREASURER'S OFFICE Some guests are literally about to arrive in Coeur d’Alene with bells on. Well, at least one… -
Idaho lawmakers weigh $3M in drug prevention, treatment proposalsThe legislative Joint Millennium Fund Committee, which oversees the endowment, heard 10 proposals Friday for use of the settlement money, which must go toward drug and alcohol prevention. As of Sept. 30, the fund’s balance was nearly $43.5… -
Idaho Congressional candidates talk public lands, rising healthcare costsIncumbent Republican Rep. Mike Simpson (right) is seeking his 15th term after first being elected to the U.S. House in 1998. His challengers include Democrat Ellie Gilbreath (left) and Independent Tripp Hutchinson (center. As U.S. Rep… -
PBS's Abortion Correspondent Goes to Idaho Again to Push for 'Abortion Care'Is PBS’s Sarah Varney a “health care” correspondent, or abortion correspondent? She’s obsessively covered the state abortion-ban beat since Roe v. Wade was overturned, from Arkansas to Texas gathering sad stories on abortion denials. PBS’s… -
What’s up with the Idaho Senate race?IDAHO - It’s a trend that’s taken on new life the election cycle, independent candidates running against establishment backed big names. Orion Donovan Smith, who's from Washington and writes for the The Spokesman-Review via the Report for… -
Opinion: Idaho voters deserve trustworthy informationIdaho families face serious challenges. War, tariffs and cuts to health coverage are making life more expensive for everyone. That makes your voting decisions all the more critical this year. Unfortunately, misleading ads are pouring into… -
Massachusetts and Idaho put guns on the ballot. One seeks to restrict them, the other to honor themParked in his truck along a rural Idaho highway on his way to an elk hunt, Neill Goodfellow pondered a question that will appear on his November ballot: which of six historic firearms to choose as the official state gun? Goodfellow is… -
Republican Jim Risch faces independent Todd Achilles in the race to represent Idaho in the U.S. SenateOct. 24—HAYDEN, Idaho — With Election Day approaching, Bonnita Zipperer offered her neighbors a rare opportunity: stop by her house to meet Todd Achilles, an independent candidate running to unseat U.S. Sen. Jim Risch, the three-term… -
Idaho Matters Reporter Roundtable: October 23, 2026It’s Friday, which means it's time for our Reporter Roundtable when Idaho Matters gets you up to date on all the news that made headlines this past week. More than 70 female smokejumpers gathered in McCall for a reunion. Idaho voters will… -
Idaho Sec. of State says Prop 1 ads followed campaign finance lawsA recent TV ad supporting Proposition 1 followed all campaign finance laws, according to the Idaho Secretary of State’s office. The controversy over the ad focused on how it was paid for. Idahoans United for Women and Families, which… -
Idaho lawmakers weigh $3M in drug prevention and treatment proposalsIdaho lawmakers will weigh whether to fund several drug-prevention and treatment projects, totaling over $3 million, through the state's endowment fund from tobacco lawsuit settlement money. The legislative Joint Millennium Fund Committee…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions