Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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Hawaii's 2nd District margin of victory
The odds
35median
1747
Median 35Middle half 30.0 – 39.7
How the odds have moved
Median: 35 on Oct 20, 35 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokuda, 20+ pts | 95% | 93¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 887 | |
| Tokuda, 23+ pts | 94% | 90¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 469 | |
| Tokuda, 26+ pts | 90% | 85¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 711 | |
| Tokuda, 29+ pts | 80% | 75¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 493 | |
| Tokuda, 32+ pts | 66% | ▼ 1 | 61¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 2.1K |
| Tokuda, 35+ pts | 50% | 45¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 472 | |
| Tokuda, 38+ pts | 33% | 28¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 250 | |
| Tokuda, 41+ pts | 19% | 14¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 50.00 | |
| Tokuda, 44+ pts | 9% | 4¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 50.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Hawaii
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Hawaii youth share climate solutions with lawmakers at summitHONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - Keiki, teens and young adults gathered Saturday at the Capitol Rotunda for the Youth Climate Summit. The summit was hosted by the Hawaii State Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission and the Climate… -
Hawaii voter turnout ‘pretty low,’ just over a week ahead of Election DayHONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - Hawaii is experiencing a relatively low voter turnout a little more than a week away from the general election. Hawaii News Now political analyst Colin Moore noted that as of Friday, only 15% of all mailed… -
Hawaii braces for heavy rain as Tropical Storm Olana forms in PacificTropical Storm Olana formed in the Pacific and is expected to bring heavy rain and powerful wind gusts to Hawaii beginning Tuesday. Some areas could see 5 to 8 inches of rain over two to three days, with the heaviest downpours expected… -
Breaking down Hawaii’s 2026 state and county ballot questionsThis election cycle, voters across Hawaii have the opportunity to approve or reject a number of amendments to the state Constitution and county charters. Although many of the proposed amendments fall outside the Grassroot Institute of… -
Lines Drawn In Hawaii Battle: Golf Course Views Vs. Luxury DevelopmentOn an 8,000-acre peninsula of pricey hotels, vacation condominiums and multimillion-dollar homes, the resort community of Princeville on Kaua‘i’s picture-perfect North Shore is the site of an escalating feud. And the community — a mix of… -
Will 2027 be the year for fiscal notes to accompany bills in Hawaii?The idea that every bill ought to come with a price tag should not be revolutionary. Actually, it isn’t. Hawaii and Vermont are the only states without some kind of law on the books mandating that so-called fiscal notes accompany any… -
PauseFest Encourages Hawaii Families to Unplug, Slow Down and ReconnectBy Bo Erickson and Kanishka Singh FORT MYERS, Florida, Oct 23 (Reuters) - US President Donald Trump said on Friday Washington may carry out another military operation against Iran at a time when the The Trump administration is suing to… -
Hawaii Medicare options help kupuna find peace of mind before annual election period endsEdward and Travis Motosue join HI Now Daily with Hawaii Medicare updates for Annual Election Period Oct. 15 to Dec. 7 to help kupuna. Hawaii Medicare options help kupuna find peace of mind before annual election period ends Hampton Inn… -
Hawaii Democrats rally on westside as Election Day approachesHONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - Democratic leaders gathered Wednesday to rally supporters and encourage voter participation ahead of the Nov. 3 general election. The rally at Kapolei High School brought together party leaders and supporters to… -
Hawaii receives nearly $400k federal grant for pesticide enforcementThe University of Hawaii was awarded a $2.5 million grant to help expand oncology care, clinical research and specialist training across the islands. As the sports season flies by, the University of ... Hawaii receives nearly $400k federal… -
Hawaii Likely Needs $1B in Disaster Recovery, Resilience FundsLate last month, Hawaii Governor Josh Green announced preliminary estimates suggesting $1 billion is needed to fund repair and mitigation following four major disasters that struck the Pacific island this year. Current estimates and… -
Hawaii Green Fee program seeks new ideas before Nov. 1 deadlineKITV Hawaii's Green Fee program has generated more than $100 million for projects focused on environmental stewardship, climate and hazard resilience, and sustainable tourism. Residents can submit ideas and support proposed projects before…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions