California's 52nd District margin of victory

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $339 traded · $339 at stake · prices read 6 h ago

The odds

30.9median

2751

Median 30.9

How the odds have moved

Median: 30.9 on Oct 19, 30.9 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Vargas, 30+ pts	56%	▲ 2	49¢	60¢	$1.67	300
Vargas, 33+ pts	36%	▼ 5	35¢	46¢	$2.17	400
Vargas, 39+ pts	13%	▲ 1	7¢	17¢	$5.88	205
Vargas, 42+ pts	6%		1¢	10¢	$10.00
Vargas, 45+ pts	4%	▲ 1	1¢	8¢	$12.99
Vargas, 48+ pts	4%		1¢	6¢	$15.63

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: California

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Alabama's 1st District margin of victory

27%Carl, 33+ pts

3060

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Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory

15%Figures, 5+ pts

232

Elections

Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory

39.2median

2454

Median 39.2Middle half 33 – 45.2

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Alabama's 4th District margin of victory

60.2median

4278

Median 60.2Middle half 53.3 – 65.3

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Alabama's 5th District margin of victory

21.9median

737

Median 21.9Middle half 18.5 – 32

Elections

Alabama's 6th District margin of victory

28.5median

1848

Median 28.5Middle half 22.8 – 37.2

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onofficial election authority responsible for certifying results in

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 11:00 AM ET

Traded$339 (905 contracts)

This week$339

At stake$339

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 52nd District by 18 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.