Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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California's 45th District margin of victory
The odds
13.8median
131
Median 13.8Middle half 7.88 – 19
How the odds have moved
Median: 13.7 on Oct 19, 13.8 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tran, 4+ pts | 89% | 84¢ | 93¢ | $1.07 | ||
| Tran, 7+ pts | 79% | ▼ 1 | 74¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | |
| Tran, 10+ pts | 67% | ▼ 1 | 62¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 200 |
| Tran, 13+ pts | 55% | 51¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 200 | |
| Tran, 16+ pts | 38% | 33¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 200 | |
| Tran, 19+ pts | 25% | 20¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | ||
| Tran, 22+ pts | 14% | 9¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | ||
| Tran, 25+ pts | 7% | 2¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 1.00 | |
| Tran, 28+ pts | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: California
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California abortion rights advocate sweats Biden drag on House racesJodi Hicks, president of Planned Parenthood California, indicated Democrats were taking a big risk in losing the House if they stuck with President Joe Biden. Jodi Hicks, an ally of the vice president and a major player in the capital city… -
The California climate move-out10/23/2026 07:30 PM EDT With help from Noah Baustin and Alex Nieves Extreme weather could force more Californians to leave their homes. | Ethan Swope/AP PACK YOUR BAGS: More wildfires, greater flooding, longer and more extreme heat waves… -
LA’s top federal prosecutor says California elections already in jeopardyLos Angeles’ top federal prosecutor fears noncitizens could be illegally casting ballots in California as dozens of polling places opened across LA County Saturday, warning the state could be trying to run out the clock before disputed… -
DOJ's voter fraud investigation continues as California early voting centers openCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. DOJ's voter… -
California leaders rebuke Trump administration’s push over alleged noncitizen votingCalifornia’s top leaders have rebuked the Trump administration’s efforts to quash alleged noncitizen voting. Less than two weeks before the midterms, federal prosecutors called upon California election officials to verify within 48 hours a… -
AOC stops by In-N-Out burger during California campaign tripCampaigning for lefty candidates all over the country sure does work up an appetite. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumped off the trail to visit an In-N-Out burger after holding an event in Bakersfield, Calif., as part of a nationwide tour… -
DOJ demands that California counties help identify noncitizen votersThe Department of Justice on Friday warned local election officials in California to cooperate with the administration to identify noncitizens on a list of registered voters or face potential legal action, according to a letter obtained by… -
DOJ demands Southern California registrars verify alleged noncitizen ballotsCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. DOJ demands… -
Ex-NFL punter turned California Democrat sparks fury with ‘racist’ banana stunt: ‘Toxic mockery’California Democrats are facing backlash over a political mailer depicting a Latina Republican candidate as a banana sticker, with the Orange County GOP blasting the image as a racially degrading attack. The mailer, paid for by the… -
California faces court deadline in Trump administration's noncitizen voter disputeThe Ninth Circuit ordered California to respond to an emergency Justice Department request seeking to set aside ballots tied to roughly 20,000 suspected noncitizens ahead of the midterm elections. California faces court deadline in Trump… -
Feds put California school districts’ ‘TMI’ student questionnaires on noticeIt’s wrong to promote radical gender ideology in schools. And it’s unconscionable to hide such efforts from parents. As The California Post reported exclusively, the US Department of Education on Friday announced investigations into three… -
Final stretch to Election Day as California’s political heavyweights deliver last pitch to votersCalifornia’s political heavyweights hit the campaign trail Saturday as early voting opened, with candidates scrambling to lock down support before Election Day and pitching voters sharply different answers to the state’s affordability and…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.7 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions