Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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Arizona's 7th District margin of victory
The odds
38median
1949
Median 38Middle half 33.2 – 42.5
How the odds have moved
Median: 36.5 on Oct 20, 38 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grijalva, 22+ pts | 95% | 93¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 2.1K | |
| Grijalva, 25+ pts | 95% | 92¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 1.1K | |
| Grijalva, 28+ pts | 94% | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 78.00 | |
| Grijalva, 31+ pts | 86% | 81¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 101 | |
| Grijalva, 32+ pts | 81% | ▼ 1 | 76¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | |
| Grijalva, 34+ pts | 72% | ▼ 1 | 67¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | 60.00 |
| Grijalva, 37+ pts | 56% | ▼ 1 | 51¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 58.00 |
| Grijalva, 40+ pts | 39% | 34¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 81.00 | |
| Grijalva, 43+ pts | 22% | 20¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 608 | |
| Grijalva, 46+ pts | 11% | 9¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 388 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Arizona
Search ›- How Trump is trying to save his longtime golf buddy in battleground ArizonaThe pro-Trump cavalry has arrived for Republican Jay Feely, who is in a tight House race against Democrat Amish Shah. GOP House candidate Jay Feely of Arizona speaks during the Republican National Convention in Dallas on Sept. 9, 2026. |…
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Interior secretary warns Arizona over Colorado River lawsuitPHOENIX — Arizona's historic legal fight over Colorado River water is drawing a warning from one of the Trump administration's top officials, even as an Arizona congressman defends the state's decision to take the federal government to… -
Why Arizona Loses Its Colorado River Water Before California DoesThe 1968 deal only makes sense alongside what came before it, which was one of the longest legal fights in American history. Arizona sued California in 1952 over Colorado River allocations. Arizona v. California ran eleven years and cost… -
Arizona set to draw on its Colorado River bankA small, plastic bottle of water arrived at the Phoenix Mayor's desk in 1985. Terry Goddard, who sat in that chair at the time, said he will never forget the slogan on the side: 'Our lifeline is online.' It was a souvenir of the first… - SOMETHING SMELLS ROTTEN IN ARIZONA.The Greatest News Site On The Internet. Home of CFP Nation. Posted by Kane on October 24, 2026 9:21 amNEWS JUNKIES -- CHECK OUT OUR HOMEPAGE < CITIZEN FREE PRESS -- HOMEPAGE
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‘Lying to YOU’: Arizona Republican torches GOP official over citizen voter purgeArizona’s top election official and attorney general have dropped their lawsuit asking a judge to force Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap to reinstate the voting rights of 25 people who were falsely flagged as noncitizens by a federal… -
Arizona utilities spend on both partiesArizona’s largest utilities are spreading hundreds of thousands of dollars across Republican and Democratic campaigns, seeking influence with whoever controls the state Capitol after the November election. But the utilities' political… -
These Arizona voters are getting their voting rights backKOLD These Arizona voters are getting their voting rights back Democracy potluck encourages voter turnout ahead of midterms Saint John's AME church fall festival this Sunday WCU Homecoming wraps up Saturday with carnival, maker’s market… -
Arizona rancher says double border wall is ‘political folly’In the borderlands of Arizona, Ross Humphreys’ San Rafael Ranch is 29 square miles of rolling hills and grass. It’s the kind of place where movies are made, and where heifers are free to loll peacefully under the wide open October sky… -
Civic engagement beyond Election Day: Arizona People’s Convention kicks off in PhoenixHosted by Activate 48, the gathering at the Sheraton Phoenix Downtown invites Arizonans to talk about community issues and civic participation beyond Election Day. "This election is our last best chance to at least rein in some of the… -
Arizona House candidate Tammy Caputi reports antisemitic death threatsA statehouse candidate battling for one of Arizona's most competitive districts is speaking out about antisemitic death threats targeting her and her family. Tammy Caputi, a Democrat and former Scottsdale City Council member, said she has… -
Arizona invests $16M in homeless shelters and services statewidePHOENIX (KVOA) — Gov. Katie Hobbs and the Arizona Department of Housing are distributing $16 million in grants to help build more shelter beds and maintain services for people experiencing homelessness across the state. The money comes…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.7 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions