Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
Install
Arkansas Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
13.6median
036
Median 13.6Middle half 8.13 – 18.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 14.9 on Oct 20, 13.6 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cotton, 2+ pts | 93% | ▼ 1 | 90¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 22.00 |
| Cotton, 4+ pts | 90% | 85¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 144 | |
| Cotton, 6+ pts | 84% | ▼ 1 | 80¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 53.00 |
| Cotton, 8+ pts | 76% | ▼ 2 | 71¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 792 |
| Cotton, 10+ pts | 68% | ▼ 2 | 63¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 1.0K |
| Cotton, 12+ pts | 59% | ▼ 1 | 54¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | 1.4K |
| Cotton, 14+ pts | 48% | ▼ 1 | 43¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 1.6K |
| Cotton, 16+ pts | 37% | ▲ 1 | 32¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 986 |
| Cotton, 18+ pts | 27% | ▲ 1 | 22¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 1.1K |
| Cotton, 20+ pts | 18% | ▼ 1 | 13¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 153 |
| Cotton, 22+ pts | 11% | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 292 | |
| Cotton, 24+ pts | 7% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 1.2K |
| Cotton, 26+ pts | 4% | 9¢ | $11.76 | 47.00 | ||
| Cotton, 28+ pts | 3% | 7¢ | $14.71 | 210 | ||
| Cotton, 30+ pts | 3% | 6¢ | $17.54 | 164 | ||
| Cotton, 32+ pts | 3% | 5¢ | $18.87 | 35.00 | ||
| Cotton, 34+ pts | 3% | 5¢ | $19.61 | 1.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Arkansas Senate
Search ›-
Early Voting Starts MondayBy Brayan Flores · October 16, 2026 Early voting for the 2026 General Election begins Monday, October 19. With Election Day just a few weeks away, now is a good time to make a plan to vote. Whether you prefer to vote early or wait until… -
Pharmacist, social worker compete for Arkansas Senate District 13 seatRepublican State Representative Brandon Achor says he chose not to seek a third term representing Arkansas House District 71 because he wanted to spend more time legislating, and less time campaigning. Achor hopes to replace term-limited… -
Which States Have Election Commissions or BoardsInformation on who is appointed to these boards and how is rooted in state statutes. In order to demystify the process, ERN has collected information from each state, which you can find below: Detail: Secretary of State serves as… - Sanders’ challengers contend governor isn’t concentrating enough on key issues Arkansans faceArkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders boasted during a debate Tuesday about the state’s successes during her term while her challengers, Democrat Fred Love and Libertarian Colt Shelby, criticized her for not concentrating enough or being…
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Key GOP Senator Surges to Double-Digit Lead Over Democrat in Senate RaceRepublican Senator Tom Cotton holds an eleven-point lead in Arkansas, according to polling circulated ahead of November’s midterm elections. An Election Time post on X reported Cotton receiving 50 percent support against Democratic… -
Advocate for foster children urges more support for young Arkansans exiting systemArkansas must rethink the way it helps young people aging out of the state's foster care system, an advocate told a legislative panel Friday. Eric Gilmore, CEO of Immerse Arkansas, founded the organization in Little Rock with his wife more…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions