Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
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Arkansas's 4th District margin of victory
The odds
33.8median
2151
Median 33.8Middle half 28.5 – 38.9
How the odds have moved
Median: 37.5 on Oct 20, 33.8 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Westerman, 24+ pts | 90% | 85¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 110 | |
| Westerman, 27+ pts | 81% | 76¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 239 | |
| Westerman, 30+ pts | 69% | 64¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 500 | |
| Westerman, 33+ pts | 55% | 50¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 570 | |
| Westerman, 36+ pts | 39% | 34¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 714 | |
| Westerman, 39+ pts | 25% | 20¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 531 | |
| Westerman, 42+ pts | 14% | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | ||
| Westerman, 45+ pts | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| Westerman, 48+ pts | 4% | 7¢ | $13.51 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Arkansas
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In Arkansas, Democrats see an opening at the edge of the competitive midterms mapArkansas Democratic Senate nominee Hallie Shoffner speaks with voters at a campaign stop in Hope, Ark. Friday, Oct. 23, 2026. Stephen Fowler/NPR hide caption HOPE, Ark. — For Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, the most important political… -
Dan Greenberg Archives - Arkansas TimesFormer Republican legislator Dan Greenberg confirmed to the Times on Wednesday he at one time “had an attorney-client relationship” with Julie McGee, the ex-girlfriend of former state Sen. Jeremy Hutchinson. Dan Greenberg, named the… -
Arkansas Advocate: Arkansas amendment would allow local economic development districtsArkansas voters in November will consider a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow the creation of local economic development districts, a move supporters say will make the state competitive but opponents have derided as… -
Arkansas History for October 24: Elaine Massacre lawsuit1863 — Civil War fighting in northwest Arkansas. Union forces under Brigadier General John McNeil attacked Confederate cavalry commanded by Joseph O. Shelby near Buffalo Mountain. Federal artillery forced the Confederates to withdraw. The… -
The Arkansas Newswrap: October 23, 2026Hear this week's episode of the Arkansas Newswrap, presented by Little Rock Public Radio, KUAF Fayetteville and KASU Jonesboro. The Arkansas Newswrap: October 23, 2026 Preparations are underway for the 2030 Census; we’ll hear more about… -
Arkansas in state of disaster under SandersAfter four years of mismanagement by Gov. Sarah Sanders and the Arkansas Legislature, the chickens are about to come home to roost for state government. Arkansas in state of disaster under Sanders -
Early voter turnout across Arkansas stays strong over first four daysAt least 205,490 Arkansans cast ballots during the first four days of early voting, state data shows, with several of the state's largest counties reporting steep turnout numbers for a midterm election. Early voter turnout across Arkansas… -
NWA EDITORIAL | Arkansas troops in D.C. should be brought back homeThank you for your service, but we'd rather you be back home in Arkansas. That is essentially what we'd like to tell the Arkansas National Guard soldiers who stand watch over the District of Columbia ... NWA EDITORIAL | Arkansas troops in… -
Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama file lawsuits over states that shield providers of mail-order abortion pillsTwo lawsuits filed last month by Arkansas, Louisiana and Alabama represent a new front in the ongoing fight over abortion in the post-Roe era, pitting red states with strict abortion bans against blue states that seek to protect healthcare… - Arkansas Democrats Fight Uphill Races Against Cotton and Hill Despite Fundraising SurgeArkansas remains one of the most conservative states in the country, NPR notes, with voters backing President Trump by nearly two out of three in 2024 and supporting Cotton in his 2020 reelection. Republicans have spent millions of dollars…
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What Arkansas needs for economic development is not Issue 3The path to prosperity — economic or social — is found by investing in people, not another tax incentive for monied interests. The path to prosperity — economic or social — is found by investing in people, not another tax incentive for… -
Proponents of Texarkana water deal tried to win over Arkansas Sen. Hickey, but he wants nothing to do with itTexarkana is proposing that Heartland Water Partners upgrade Millwood Lake's intake infrastructure, build a pipeline at the group's expense and purchase up to 110 million gallons of water a day, which Texarkana officials say the city won't…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions