Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%▲ 1
- Republican Party9%
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How many House Republicans will lose reelection in 2026?
The odds
27.2median
1252
Median 27.2Middle half 22.5 – 32.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 26.9 on Oct 19, 27.2 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 or more | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| 20 or more | 87% | 83¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | ||
| 24 or more | 68% | 63¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | ||
| 28 or more | 46% | 41¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | ||
| 32 or more | 28% | ▲ 1 | 24¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 151 |
| 36 or more | 14% | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | ||
| 40 or more | 9% | 5¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| 44 or more | 7% | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 2.00 | |
| 48 or more | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House Republicans
Search ›- The vulnerable House Republican trying to withstand the anger directed at his partyGOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick was weaving through the crowd of a fall street festival when he was confronted by a man enraged by the skyrocketing costs he’s experiencing. Dave Woods, a contractor and registered Democrat, held up red signs…
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House Republicans subpoena New Jersey for noncitizen voter recordsMikie Sherrill’s administration has only produced 12 documents in three months, the subpoena alleges. House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan and three of his fellow Republicans have issued a subpoena for records on how thousands of noncitizens… -
House Republicans Subpoena New Jersey Governor Over Noncitizen Voter ErrorSherrill has until Nov. 16 to comply with the house republican’s requests. What would you like to watch today? House Republicans Subpoena New Jersey Governor Over Noncitizen Voter Error NTD Good Morning Full Broadcast (Oct. 23) NTD Evening… -
House Republicans subpoena New Jersey governor to explain noncitizen voter errorThe Republican leaders of the House Judiciary and Administration Committees have subpoenaed the administration of New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, demanding answers on why 6,600 noncitizens remained registered to vote until 2026. In July,…… -
Statement from Governor Sherrill on House Republicans’ Subpoena?I’m focused on governing effectively. Republicans in Congress clearly aren’t. “Instead of actually doing anything to make our elections safer or addressing issues Americans care about, like skyrocketing prices, Washington Republicans are… -
Gov. Sherrill criticizes House Republican subpoena over NJ MVC voter registration issueTRENTON, N.J. — Gov. Mikie Sherrill criticized congressional Republicans Wednesday over a subpoena related to a New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission voter registration issue dating back to 2023, accusing lawmakers of playing politics less… -
House Republicans subpoena Sherrill in NJ voter registration scandalTRENTON — House Republicans have subpoenaed Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s administration over the voter registration error that put 6,600 noncitizens on New Jersey’s rolls, and they want to know who knew and when. On Wednesday, the House Judiciary… -
Missouri 7th District House – Republican Jeremy Clevenger“Today’s News… Yesterday’s Music”. KCHI is your hometown radio voice, on 102.5 FM, and 1010 AM and streaming at KCHI.com, with a clear focus on local news, information, and community connection. We’re the only commercial radio station… -
Republicans skeptical of polling data ahead of midtermsHouse Majority Leader Steve Scalise discusses the fight for the House majority. Scalise encourages people to 'show up and vote' in order for GOP to hold the House. Republicans skeptical of polling data ahead of midterms House Majority… -
House Republicans subpoena NJ for records in voter registration snafuHouse Republican leaders subpoenaed Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill's administration Wednesday for records to learn more about how about 6,000 New Jerseyans who said they were noncitizens were registered to vote. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R), who… -
Trump’s Campaign Rally Blitz Dodges Vulnerable House RepublicansBloomberg Government News President Donald Trump is leaving vulnerable House Republicans to fend for themselves in the final stretch of the midterm cycle, as he shifts his travel to focus on statewide races where his party believes he has… -
House Republicans Subpoena New Jersey Secretary of State for Information on the State Registering Over 6,000 Noncitizens to VoteWASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH), House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil (R-WI), House Judiciary Subcommittee on Oversight Chairman Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ), and House Administration…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions