Average Wall Street bonus in 2026
$283,750median
$175,000$375,000
Median $283,750Middle half $262,500 – $305,729
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Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 24, 2026
The odds
195,000median
170,000230,000
Median 195,000Middle half 189,819 – 203,036
How the odds have moved
Median: 194,800 on Oct 23, 195,000 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 175,000 | 99% | 97¢ | $1.02 | 41.00 | ||
| At least 180,000 | 98% | 95¢ | $1.02 | 1.00 | ||
| At least 185,000 | 98% | 84¢ | $1.02 | 35.00 | ||
| At least 195,000 | 50% | 41¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 19.00 | |
| At least 200,000 | 42% | ▲ 26 | 25¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 1.5K |
| At least 205,000 | 14% | ▲ 2 | 5¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 402 |
| At least 210,000 | 7% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 505 |
| At least 215,000 | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.00 | |
| At least 220,000 | 2% | 3¢ | $33.33 | |||
| At least 225,000 | 2% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
Search ›- Was It a Good Jobs Report or a Bad One?A one-time tax on the super wealthy is an important step toward greater equality. How can we fund universal childcare, Medicare for All, and a green economy while reducing inequality? A new plan shows how taxing wealth and corporate…
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Waco unemployment rate drops 0.3%, lower than Texas' numberUS President Donald Trump has said that Google rejected his request to rename the Atlantic Ocean after himself or America on Google Maps. Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina, Trump said he had called Google CEO Sundar Pichai to… -
Carson City unemployment up slightly in September, Reno and Vegas remain steadySeptember unemployment in the greater Carson City and Reno areas was 3.5 percent with Las Vegas at 4.8 percent, according to the latest economic report from the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. In August… -
Galaxy Payroll Group (NASDAQ:GLXG) Stock Falls 3% – Time to Sell?Posted by Michael Walen on Oct 25th, 2026 Galaxy Payroll Group Limited (NASDAQ:GLXG – Get Free Report)’s share price dropped 3% on Friday. The stock traded as low as $0.85 and last traded at $0.8709. 3,584 shares traded hands during… -
Labor Department 'bulk dropped' 22K unemployment claims' protestsThe New York Department of Labor headquarters at the W. Averell Harriman State Office Campus in Albany. The department recently “bulk dropped” more than 20,000 unemployment insurance claims protests filed by employers without reviewing the… -
Bone Marrow Biopsy for the Initial Staging of Patients With Lymphoma: Too Soon to Toss the TrephineAlthough the prospect is tempting, we do not believe there are sufficient grounds at this time to abandon bone marrow biopsy in patients with lymphoma. It still provides robust prognostic information, and in the majority of patients it… -
Ranbir Kapoor Reveals Playing Lord Ram in Ramayana Transformed Initial Fear Into Gratitude to Become a ‘Better Human’Home » Ranbir Kapoor Reveals Playing Lord Ram in Ramayana Transformed Initial Fear Into Gratitude to Become a ‘Better Human’ Actor Ranbir Kapoor shared deep insights into his emotional journey playing Lord Ram in director Nitesh Tiwari’s… -
Rentokil Initial (NYSE:RTO) Upgraded at Zacks ResearchPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 25th, 2026 Zacks Research upgraded shares of Rentokil Initial (NYSE:RTO – Free Report) from a strong sell rating to a hold rating in a report issued on Thursday morning,Zacks reports. Check Out Our… - Southport Acquisition Corp. II Announces Pricing of $200,000,000 Initial Public OfferingGreenwich, CT, Sept. 30, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Southport Acquisition Corp. II (NYSE: PORT.U) (the “Company”) today announced the pricing of its initial public offering of 20,000,000 units at a ... Southport Acquisition Corp. II…
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Rentokil Initial PLC $RTO Stock: Iridian Asset Management LLC CT Raises HoldingsHere are the key news stories impacting Rentokil Initial this week: The firm also recently declared a dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, September 22nd. Stockholders of record on Friday, August 14th were paid a $0.2240 dividend. This is… -
Bone Marrow Biopsy for the Initial Staging of Patients With Lymphoma: It’s Time to Eliminate This Procedure in Selected PatientsClearly, eliminating a bone marrow biopsy in appropriate patients would be another step in the direction of minimizing the torture to which they are subjected. The data for PET-CT in assessing the bone marrow in other lymphoma histologies… -
Concerns about quality of health care, unemployment, as RMPs in Keralam cross one-lakh markOver 1 lakh registered medical practitioners in Kerala, with 31,446 new since 2021, amid unemployment and healthcare concerns. According to RTI data collected from the KSMC, there are 1,13,023 RMPs in the State As many as 31,446 doctors…
Related markets
All jobs ›How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5%5.0%
4.5%13%
US retail jobs added this holiday season (September–December 2026)
556,098median
250,000650,000
Median 556,098Middle half 337,500 – 586,585
Mexico unemployment rate in October (Mexico UE Oct 2026)
36%Above 2.6%
2.5%3.5%
Unemployment in October (Oct 2026)
4.15%median
3.6%5.1%
Median 4.15%Middle half 4.08% – 4.23%
UK retail sales in October (October 2026)
-0.55%median
-2%2.5%
Median -0.55%Middle half -0.86% – 0.92%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions