ISM Manufacturing PMI in October (Oct 2026)

Kalshi Economy › Inflation Closes Nov 2 · $576 traded · $366 at stake · prices read 78 min ago

The odds

53.9median

5059

Median 53.9Middle half 53.3 – 55.6

How the odds have moved

Median: 53.5 on Oct 19, 53.9 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
At least 51	98%		95¢		$1.03	196
At least 52	96%		92¢		$1.04	110
At least 53	88%		83¢	93¢	$1.08	221
At least 54	44%		41¢	47¢	$2.13	4.00
At least 55	37%	▲ 1	33¢	41¢	$2.44	20.00
At least 56	16%	▲ 1	11¢	21¢	$4.76	324
At least 57	1%			1¢	$100.00	694
At least 58	1%			4¢	$25.00	875

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: ISM Manufacturing PMI

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Fed Over-Tightening: How Much Runway Is Left Before It Bites?Seeking Alpha · 2 days agoThe risk of Fed over-tightening rises when 5% Treasury yields, a thin savings cushion and a hike-cut-hike Fed all converge at the same time. Read more here... - Outside the 2020-2022 shock, months with an ISM Manufacturing PMI of 55 or…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onISM

Trading closesNov 2, 2026 9:59 AM ET

Traded$576 (2,443 contracts)

This week$60

At stake$366

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for Oct 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 51, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions