Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party10%
Install
UT-01 House winner? (2026)
The odds
96%Ben McAdams
- Ben McAdams96%
- Riley Owen3%
How the odds have moved
Ben McAdams: 97% on Oct 20, 96% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben McAdams | 96% | 94¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 7.8K | |
| Riley Owen | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.83 | 5.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: UT- House, Ben McAdams, Riley Owen
Search ›-
Utah’s U.S. House races: What to know before Nov. 3Every two years, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives go before voters, including Utah’s four. This year’s midterm elections, on Nov. 3, arrive halfway through President Donald J. Trump’s term. Following a court-ordered… -
Utah congressional districts are warming fast. That may not move the political needleAs the campaign trail heats up in the final sprint to Election Day, Salt Lake’s new 1st Congressional District is heating up in another, more literal way. It’s warming faster than all but one other district nationwide. Average temperatures… -
Redistricting, Ousted Leaders, and a Competitive Salt Lake Seat: Utah’s Midterms Explained • Salt Lake MagazineHome » Redistricting, Ousted Leaders, and a Competitive Salt Lake Seat: Utah’s Midterms Explained We won’t hit on every name you’ll see on your November ballot, but we will point out some notable hits and misses in the primaries and direct… - A 28-year-old Republican outlines the GOP’s post-Trump future in a district Harris won by 24 pointsUtah’s 1st Congressional District, which favors Democrats by double digits, is an unlikely place to revamp the conservative movement. But that is exactly what Republican nominee Riley Owen set out to do on Wednesday. Surrounded by a…
-
The real reasons US politicians are getting olderNot many US politicians have endured for as long as Hal Rogers, who will go into November's midterm elections seeking his 24th term in the House of Representatives. The 88-year-old Republican has represented Kentucky's 5th congressional… -
Utah Democrats have been out of power for 50 years. As the state changes, here’s how they think they can win.(Courtesy of Sophy Bishop) Sophy Bishop, her husband Tim Johnson and their son Artie mountain bike at Round Valley in 2025. The couple moved to Utah in 2021 to get closer to the outdoor recreation they enjoy, and Bishop thinks similar… - Opinion: Utah’s hottest midterm races to watch — what you need to knowUtahns will soon be free of political commercials as Election Day approaches in less than two weeks. The much-anticipated results will determine whether a blue wave, major polling mistakes or third-party upsets occur. Here is a primer of…
-
Super PACs fuel record midterm spending, pouring nearly $3M into Utah network TV ads this electionSALT LAKE CITY, Utah — Super PACs, the committees that can raise unlimited funds, are largely powering the most expensive midterm election in history. In Utah, these groups aren't spending so heavily, but they have still already poured… -
What to know about the race for Utah's 1st Congressional DistrictSALT LAKE CITY — Utah's new 1st Congressional District has Democrats in the state hopeful about sending one of their own to Congress for the first time this decade. Democrats nominated a household name, Ben McAdams, a former U.S… -
Mike Lee asks Supreme Court to step into Eastman disbarment fightThe Utah Republican and Sen. Ted Cruz say California’s decision to disbar the Trump lawyer was political and punishes protected speech. Sen. Mike Lee is asking the Supreme Court to take up the disbarment of John Eastman, the lawyer behind… -
Utah Senate race ratings Update: 4 races shift toward DemocratsEvery rating change in Utah Political Watch’s latest update of the 2026 state Senate map moves toward Democrats. For the first time since we began publishing ratings, one race is a genuine toss-up. Four of the 15 seats on the November… -
Ben McAdams: Utahns are being priced out. If elected, I’ll fight for affordability and accountability.(Bethany Baker | The Salt Lake Tribune) First Congressional District Democratic candidate Ben McAdams stands with his family on stage as he speaks during an election watch party in Salt Lake City on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. In September…
Related markets
All house ›NC-13 House Election Winner
65%Brad Knott (R)
- Brad Knott (R)65%▼ 14
- Paul Barringer (D)32%▲ 10
MN-05 House winner?
94%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar94%
- John Nagel5%
- DeVelle Jackson1%
TX-15 House winner? (2026)
86%Bobby Pulido
- Bobby Pulido86%▼ 1
- Monica De La Cruz14%▲ 3
NC-03 House winner?
67%Greg Murphy
- Greg Murphy67%▼ 5
- Raymond Smith Jr.34%▲ 5
NC-13 House winner?
68%Brad Knott
- Brad Knott68%▼ 12
- Paul Barringer31%▲ 10
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions