Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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2026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout?
The odds
117.53Mmedian
0130.00M
Median 117.53MMiddle half 111.18M – 123.71M
How the odds have moved
Median: 116.66M on Oct 20, 117.53M now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 90 million | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | 13.7K | |
| 90 to 94.99 million | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 10.3K | |
| 95 to 99.99 million | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | 10.5K | |
| 100 to 104.99 million | 6% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 8.9K |
| 105 to 109.99 million | 11% | ▲ 3 | 9¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 5.8K |
| 110 to 114.99 million | 16% | ▼ 1 | 17¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 10.9K |
| 115 to 119.99 million | 25% | ▲ 1 | 27¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 12.8K |
| 120 to 124.99 million | 17% | ▲ 4 | 17¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 16.0K |
| 125 million and above | 21% | ▲ 4 | 21¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 35.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: U.S. House, Midterms
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Who's running for Congress in Mississippi U.S. House District 1?Mississippi's most expensive U.S. House race is unfolding in District 1, which encompasses the northeastern corner of the state. Two challengers, a Democrat and a Libertarian, are vying to unseat Republican incumbent Rep. Trent Kelly. He… -
2026 Massachusetts U.S. House District 4 Republican primary election resultsMassachusetts U.S. House District 4 Republican primary election results. The Globe is tracking the results from the 2026 Massachusetts U.S. House District 4 Republican primar ... 2026 Massachusetts U.S. House District 4 Republican primary… -
LCV Action Fund Announces Latest Endorsements for U.S. House of RepresentativesAction Fund, which works to elect candidates who will fight to lower energy costs, build a clean energy economy, and strengthen our democracy for all, announced endorsements for six candidates running ... LCV Action Fund Announces Latest… -
Bob Harvie narrowly leads Brian Fitzpatrick in Bucks County’s closely watched U.S. House race, new poll findsA new Inquirer/New York Times/Siena University poll of 1st District voters finds that Democrat Bob Harvie is leading U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick 48% to 46%. Democrat Bob Harvie holds a narrow lead over Republican U.S. Rep. Brian… -
Candidates compete for Issa's California seat in U.S. HouseIssa, a Republican from San Diego County, opted not to run for another term in the newly redrawn district. Editor's note: This concludes this week's series on the June 2 primary election in California. The stories include comments from… -
DECISION 2026: Tennessee U.S. House Dist. 3Tennessee’s 3rd Congressional District includes all of Hamilton, Bradley, McMinn, and Polk County. The battle for who represents the area at the national level includes Republican incumbent Charles “Chuck” Fleischmann and Democratic… -
Democrat Nancy Lacore outlines priorities in South Carolina U.S. House District 1 raceCHARLESTON, S.C. (WTOC) - Democrat Nancy Lacore said ending corruption and lowering the cost of living are focuses of her campaign for the South Carolina U.S. House District 1 seat. Lacore is running against Republican Jenny Costa… -
Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt outlines priorities in South Carolina U.S. House District 1 raceCHARLESTON, S.C. (WTOC) - Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt said protecting her home and addressing affordability are driving her campaign for the South Carolina U.S. House District 1 seat in the Nov. 3 election. Honeycutt is running… -
With a U.S. House seat at stake, Washington Republican John Braun targets trans girls in sportsJohn Braun is championing Initiative 638 in a race against Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez that could help determine control of the House. Washington Sen. John Braun looks out onto the factory floor at Braun Northwest’s Chehalis… -
Israel detains U.S. House candidate, activists amid West Bank olive harvestThe Washington Post TEL AVIV — Israeli security forces on Wednesday detained dozens of volunteer monitors in an olive grove near Bethlehem, including a Democratic candidate for U.S. Congress. They also sealed off Palestinian farmland… -
Tucson Now: Congresswoman Grijalva’s plan to keep U.S. House AZ-07With early voting underway and Election Day just around the corner, U.S. Rep. Adelita Grijalva joined Tucson Now to lay out her platform and make her pitch to voters across Arizona’s 7th Congressional ... TUCSON, Ariz. (13 News) - With…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions