Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%▲ 1
Install
120th Congress: Who will run for House Republican leader? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
73%Jim Jordan
- Jim Jordan73%
- Mike Johnson53%▲ 1
- Steve Scalise34%
- Tom Emmer11%
- August Pfluger4%
How the odds have moved
Jim Jordan: 70% on Oct 20, 73% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Jordan | 73% | 71¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 3.5K | |
| Mike Johnson | 53% | ▲ 1 | 49¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 2.4K |
| Steve Scalise | 34% | 31¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 2.0K | |
| Tom Emmer | 11% | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 1.00 | |
| August Pfluger | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House Republican, Jim Jordan, Mike Johnson
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Rep Jim Jordan commends ‘common sense conservative’ running in tight Florida districtGOP congressional candidate Mike Beltran and Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, discuss Republican momentum in Florida’s 14th district on ‘Fox Report.’ ... Rep Jim Jordan commends ‘common sense conservative’ running in tight Florida district GOP… -
Mike Johnson's future hangs in balance as the 'accidental speaker' marks 3 yearsSpeaker of the House Mike Johnson discusses the GOP effort to keep control of Congress as the midterm elections near. Johnson also weighs in on Russian sanctions and more during 'Sunday Morning Futures.' Three years ago today marked the… -
Mike Johnson asks Trump for more midterm money as Republicans seek to avert disaster in House racesIn the final sprint to the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson went to President Donald Trump with a crucial ask, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Johnson’s message: Could Trump spare more cash to help House Republicans in this… -
House Republicans subpoena New Jersey for noncitizen voter recordsMikie Sherrill’s administration has only produced 12 documents in three months, the subpoena alleges. House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan and three of his fellow Republicans have issued a subpoena for records on how thousands of noncitizens… - The vulnerable House Republican trying to withstand the anger directed at his partyGOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick was weaving through the crowd of a fall street festival when he was confronted by a man enraged by the skyrocketing costs he’s experiencing. Dave Woods, a contractor and registered Democrat, held up red signs…
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House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigns for Kevin Lincoln in competitive Central Valley congressional raceOctober 21, 2026 / 10:36 PM PDT / CBS Sacramento House Speaker Mike Johnson traveled to Stockton on Wednesday to campaign for Republican Kevin Lincoln, stepping up GOP efforts to reclaim California's 13th Congressional District less than… -
Mike Johnson Warns America Could Face France-Style Riots if Democrats Take CongressU.S. House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON (R-LA) warns that TV images of violent riots in France could offer a preview of how America may look if radical Democrats gain control of Congress on November 3rd; he also charges that Christians opting to… -
Reporter's Notebook: Congress braces for post-election game of musical chairs as leadership battles loomFox News chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram reports on the Senate failing to advance the CLARITY Act in a procedural vote amid Democratic concerns over ethics provisions in the cryptocurrency legislation on ‘Special Report.’… -
Kevin McCarthy predicts Republicans will LOSE the House in two weeks as he blames Mike JohnsonBy SAMANTHA LOREN, US POLITICAL REPORTER Kevin McCarthy has no hope left of Republicans maintaining control of the House. In an interview with Bloomberg TV on Thursday, the former House Speaker said Democrats would likely win the chamber… - Mike Johnson needs to speak up for Ilhan OmarThe raid on Ilhan Omar’s home potentially violated her rights as a member of Congress. As speaker of the House, Mike Johnson needs to stand by her. Federal agents took possession of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s laptop and personal cellphone when they…
- Mike Johnson asks Trump for more cash as GOP scrambles to defend vulnerable House seats: ReportWASHINGTON, DC: House Speaker Mike Johnson has asked President Donald Trump for additional campaign money as Republicans scramble to protect their narrow House majority ahead of the November midterm elections, according to people familiar…
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House Republicans Subpoena New Jersey Governor Over Noncitizen Voter ErrorSherrill has until Nov. 16 to comply with the house republican’s requests. What would you like to watch today? House Republicans Subpoena New Jersey Governor Over Noncitizen Voter Error NTD Good Morning Full Broadcast (Oct. 23) NTD Evening…
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All house ›NC-13 House Election Winner
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions