Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
Install
120th Congress: Who will run for House Democratic leader? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
90%Hakeem Jeffries
- Hakeem Jeffries90%▼ 1
- Katherine Clark3%
- Pete Aguilar3%
- Rashida Tlaib3%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez3%
- Joe Neguse3%
- Pramila Jayapal3%
- Ted Lieu3%
How the odds have moved
Hakeem Jeffries: 92% on Oct 19, 90% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Jeffries | 90% | ▼ 1 | 90¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 34.00 |
| Katherine Clark | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Pete Aguilar | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Rashida Tlaib | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 78.00 | |
| Joe Neguse | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Pramila Jayapal | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Ted Lieu | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House Democratic, Hakeem Jeffries, Katherine Clark
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Thune brushes off prospect of Hakeem Jeffries taking power as GOP faces midterm testElection forecasters see Democrats taking the House, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told Fox News Digital he is confident Republicans will hold the chamber and he won’t have to work with potential Speaker Hakeem Jeffries… -
Why Democrats are looking to Katherine Clark to bring ‘order’ to the HouseThe Massachusetts progressive could be the first woman to serve as House majority leader. She’ll have her hands full. Clark, seen Oct. 10 in Cleveland, insisted a House Democratic majority "isn't going to be my-way-or-the-highway from any… - Hakeem Jeffries is poised to make history. His leadership style faces a test.Breaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The New York Democrat…
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Hakeem Jeffries headlines ‘Take Back the House’ campaign rally in Buena ParkFor the past two years, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries says there’s been a lingering question that’s plagued him ever since President Donald Trump won the White House and the Republican Party took control of both the House and… -
Hakeem Jeffries poised to become first Black House Speaker if Democrats winEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered… -
Hakeem Jeffries Is Poised to Make History“If Democrats retake the House in November, Hakeem Jeffries is all but certain to become speaker in January — the first Black American to hold the post,” the Washington Post reports. “Yet the question facing the 56-year-old New York… -
Hakeem Jeffries Nears Historic Chance to Become First Black House SpeakerWASHINGTON — House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries says his party is “on the verge” of winning control of the U.S. House, a result that could put him in position to become the first Black Speaker in American history. The milestone is not… -
Voters angry about high prices may get little relief from the next CongressBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. If voters expect a new… -
‘How Many Tries Do Dems Need?’: Critics Question Hakeem Jeffries’ Backing of Marni von Wilpert to Fix Healthcare and Flip California’s 48thThe clip shows Jeffries and San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert at a San Diego County hospital. Von Wilpert speaks at a podium outdoors and says, “The stakes of this election could not be more serious. To flip the US House of… - Hakeem Jeffries on 2026 Midterms, NY-17 and AffordabilityHouse Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries predicts Democrats retake the House in November, citing affordability and New York's tight NY-17 race. Explore Our Cities & Metro Areas (A-Z) Jeffries Predicts Democrats Retake House, Says NY-17 Race…
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Hakeem Jeffries-affiliated super PAC says Leela Gray is polling ahead of Anna Paulina LunaA super PAC affiliated with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries says its polling shows Democrat Leela Gray leading Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna. House Majority PAC released top-line polling on 13 battleground races across the… -
Democratic socialists reportedly plan to pressure Hakeem Jeffries as far-left influence growsFormer Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., joins 'Fox & Friends' to discuss reports of the Democratic Socialists of America pressuring House Minority Speaker Hakeem Jeffries and shares his thoughts on the upcoming midterm elections. Democratic…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions