Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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Midterms: Republican share of voters 18-29? (Nov 6, 2026)
The odds
32.06%median
24%46%
Median 32.06%Middle half 29.06% – 37.17%
How the odds have moved
Median: 31.67% on Oct 19, 32.06% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 26% | 92% | 87¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | ||
| Above 28% | 84% | 79¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | ||
| Above 30% | 68% | 63¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | ||
| Above 32% | 51% | 46¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | ||
| Above 34% | 35% | 30¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | ||
| Above 36% | 28% | 24¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | ||
| Above 38% | 23% | 18¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | ||
| Above 40% | 17% | 13¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 251 | |
| Above 42% | 12% | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | ||
| Above 44% | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms
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Final sprint to midtermsPresident Trump and former President Obama appeared on the campaign trail during the final sprint to the midterms. NBC News’ Monica Alba reports. Comey faces criminal charges for third time Police called to three-year-old’s soccer game… -
Trump, Obama hold rallies ahead of midtermsPresident Trump is holding several rallies, including in deep-red states, in the week before the midterm as he tries to keep his party in control of Congress. Former President Barack Obama is also headlining events, hoping to help flip… -
‘Seen and Unseen’: Celebrities make their midterm pitchFox News contributor Raymond Arroyo discusses Hollywood celebrities backing Democrats in key 2026 midterm races and former Vice President Kamala Harris hitting the campaign trail on ‘The Ingraham Angle.’ ‘Seen and Unseen’: Celebrities make… -
How Student Loan Default Rates Could Impact Midterm VotersOct 26, 2026 at 05:30 PM EDT Millions of Americans struggling with student loan payments could be bringing their frustrations to the ballot boxes. Amid the Trump administration’s many changes affecting the Department of Education (DOE)… -
Midterm Sprint: Bret Baier breaks down competitive Senate races'Special Report' executive editor Bret Baier hosts a countdown to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing key matchups that could decide the balance of power. Midterm Sprint: Bret Baier breaks down competitive Senate races 'Special Report'… -
Ohio voters motivated ahead of midtermsFox News' Steve Doocy visits JC's Restaurant in Burton, Ohio, to hear from voters about the tightening governor's race. Local residents share their perspectives on the candidates and key issues. Ohio voters motivated ahead of midterms Fox… -
Young Georgians ready to rock the vote this midtermCBS News Atlanta is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WUPA and channel 69, CBS News Atlanta offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Young Georgians ready… -
Gretchen Whitmer asked whether 'hidden xenophobia' will affect midterm electionsMichigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was asked by MS NOW anchor Peter Alexander whether Republicans are seeking out "hidden xenophobia" ahead of the Senate race. MS NOW anchor Peter Alexander asked Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, D-Mich., on Sunday… -
Trump Offers $1M for Election Fraud Convictions Week Before MidtermsOct 26, 2026 at 06:23 PM EDT President Donald Trump has offered $1 million to people who report voter fraud that results in an arrest and conviction, raising the financial stakes of his election-integrity push just over a week before the… -
Cobb County SPLOST up for renewal this midterm electionCBS News Atlanta is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WUPA and channel 69, CBS News Atlanta offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Cobb County SPLOST up… -
WATCH LIVE: Trump rallies voters in Mississippi ahead of midtermsThe president is campaigning for Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. WATCH LIVE: Trump rallies voters in Mississippi ahead of midterms The president is campaigning for Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. -
Prediction markets' credibility 'on the line' in midterms"This is truly the first prediction-market election," Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said. The midterm elections represent a major chance for prediction market platforms like Kalshi to prove their forecasting chops. | Jenny Kane/AP America’s…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions