Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? (Nov 6, 2026)
The odds
9.6%median
4%20%
Median 9.6%Middle half 8.2% – 11.38%
How the odds have moved
Median: 9.03% on Oct 20, 9.6% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 6% | 93% | ▲ 1 | 88¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | |
| Above 8% | 80% | ▲ 2 | 77¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 2.7K |
| Above 9% | 57% | ▲ 1 | 53¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 1.00 |
| Above 10% | 45% | ▲ 1 | 41¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 2.3K |
| Above 12% | 16% | ▲ 1 | 12¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 1.9K |
| Above 14% | 8% | 6¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 3.4K | |
| Above 16% | 8% | 4¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 1.3K | |
| Above 18% | 5% | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 1.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms, Black
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Countdown on until 2026 midterm electionCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Countdown on until 2026… -
2026 Midterms: Trump Attacks El-Sayed, Election LawsuitsPresident Donald Trump escalated attacks against Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed as Republicans seek to hold the Senate, while legal fights over disputed ballots in California and Alaska raise fresh questions about election… -
Early voting surges as Trump launches midterm blitzHistorian Tom Del Beccaro analyzes the surge in early voting numbers across Texas and other key states. He also discusses President Donald Trump's midterm campaign strategy as candidates enter the final stretch. Early voting surges as… -
Black Michigan voters open up on El-Sayed vs. RogersLawrence Jones leads a panel discussion with Naura Evans and Rev. Dr. Charles Williams II on dueling rallies by President Donald Trump and Barack Obama in Michigan. They analyze polling data regarding Black Michigan voters' support for… -
Trump continues midterm campaign blitz to rally for Republican candidatesCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Trump continues midterm… -
Mississippi Senate race heats up amid Trump's Southern midterm campaignFmr RNC Deputy Comms Director Cassie Smedile discusses Trump's Southern midterm campaign, analyzing the Mississippi Senate matchup between Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic candidate Scott Colom. Mississippi Senate race… -
What are the US midterm elections and why do they matter?On 3 November, US citizens will decide whether Republicans will retain control of Congress or whether Democrats will come to power to stymie Trump’s agenda Donald Trump will still be US president on the morning of 4 November. But he could… -
President Trump continues midterm election ralliesCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
Do you live in the rent belt? Check our new midterms indexOct 26, 2026 at 07:28 AM EDT As Jimmy McMillan's party famously put it: the rent is too damn high. In California’s 46th Congressional District, anchored by Santa Ana, a year of the median rent—$2,232 a month, utilities included—comes to… -
Cost of living dominates voter concerns with midterms just days awayParents Samantha Wilhelm, Lori Tiangco and Rebecca Rogers share their top midterm priorities and discuss how the rising cost of living is driving their votes in key races. Cost of living dominates voter concerns with midterms just days… -
"Black out Sunday" urges churches to vote earlyCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
Data center boom puts GOP in a bind before midtermsCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions