Gold price at year end? (December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST)

Kalshi Finance › Commodities Closes Dec 31 · $413 today · $63.9K traded · $27.9K at stake · prices read 22 min ago

The odds

38%4,300 or above
Gold now 3,997.30 −0.26%
$4,200$5,600

How the odds have moved

4,300 or above: 69% on Sep 22, 38% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 17, 12 AM ET4,300 or above: 44% → 51%
  2. Oct 1, 12 AM ET4,300 or above: 44% → 51%
  3. Sep 29, 12 AM ET4,300 or above: 55% → 45%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
4,300 or above 38% ▼ 2 35¢ 40¢ $2.50 72.2K
4,400 or above 30% ▼ 3 29¢ 30¢ $3.33 64.7K
4,500 or above 20% ▼ 8 19¢ 20¢ $5.00 31.6K
4,600 or above 11% ▼ 1 9¢ 12¢ $8.33 27.5K
4,700 or above 9% ▼ 2 8¢ 9¢ $11.11 17.3K
4,800 or above 7% ▼ 1 6¢ 8¢ $12.50 26.5K
4,900 or above 6% ▼ 2 4¢ 7¢ $14.29 22.8K
5,000 or above 6% ▼ 2 4¢ 7¢ $14.29 19.4K
5,100 or above 5% 4¢ 6¢ $16.67 10.6K
5,200 or above 4% 2¢ 6¢ $16.67 8.8K
5,300 or above 4% 3¢ 5¢ $20.00 7.3K
5,400 or above 4% 2¢ 6¢ $16.67 13.4K
5,500 or above 4% ▼ 2 4¢ 5¢ $20.00 30.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: gold prices, gold, PM EST

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions