Fed funds rate at end of 2033
3.53%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 3.53%Middle half 1.79% – 4.73%
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Fed funds rate at end of 2032
The odds
3.32%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 3.32%
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.32% on Oct 19, 3.32% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.00% | 72% | 44¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 75.00 | |
| Above 1.25% | 72% | 66¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 72.00 | |
| Above 1.50% | 72% | 67¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 72.00 | |
| Above 1.75% | 72% | 44¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 216 | |
| Above 2.00% | 70% | 39¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 161 | |
| Above 2.25% | 56% | 38¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 200 | |
| Above 2.50% | 56% | 38¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 3.00 | |
| Above 2.75% | 56% | 35¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 25.00 | |
| Above 3.00% | 56% | 33¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | ||
| Above 3.25% | 55% | 28¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 75.00 | |
| Above 3.50% | 37% | 19¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 5.00 | |
| Above 3.75% | 34% | 15¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | 84.00 | |
| Above 4.00% | 34% | 15¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 41.00 | |
| Above 4.25% | 34% | 10¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 18.00 | |
| Above 4.50% | 34% | 36¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 163 | |
| Above 4.75% | 34% | 10¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 205 | |
| Above 5.00% | 30% | 7¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 161 | |
| Above 5.25% | 28% | 3¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 117 | |
| Above 5.50% | 27% | 3¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | 170 | |
| Above 5.75% | 16% | 40¢ | $2.50 | 231 | ||
| Above 6.00% | 11% | 13¢ | $7.69 | 107 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
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Jeff Sica discusses tech AI spending and Federal Reserve rate expectationsCircle Squared Alternative Investments founder Jeff Sica discusses high-stakes AI spending from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during a busy earnings week on 'Varney & Co.' Sica warns that tech companies must deliver on artificial… -
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Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in October. Here's what that means for consumersThe Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October meeting — even as higher energy costs complicate the inflation outlook and put additional pressure on household budgets. The consumer price index, a… -
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4 Investments That Could Make Sense If the Federal Reserve Raises Interest RatesAfter the Federal Reserve recently decided to raise interest rates to cool an uptick in inflation, much of Wall Street and Main Street are trying to understand what its next move will be. According to a recent CNBC article, the chances of… -
Trump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve’s Lisa CookPresident Donald Trump on Oct. 9 announced a new committee to investigate whether a Federal Reserve governor made false statements. The committee will probe allegations that Lisa Cook, governor of the Federal Reserve, offered false… -
Can the Federal Reserve Keep Rates High Without Breaking Something?Although the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October 27-28 meeting, the bigger problem remains. Inflation is still stubborn, oil is well above $100, and US borrowing costs are… -
The Federal Reserve is set to hold rates this week: Why a December hike is virtually fully priced anywayThe US Dollar (USD) maintains a well-supported stance across global FX markets as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve will keep the Fed funds rate steady at 3.75–4.00% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD)… -
Why the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates againMany consumers face higher borrowing costs after the Fed's first interest rate hike in more than three years took place on Sept. 16, 2026. Experts warn that more rate hikes could be ahead too, given the spike in inflation. Many consumers… -
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President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed, "Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation, They Cause Wealth," but Data From Federal Reserve Economists Show OtherwiseHowever, this doesn't mean that all of the president's policies are necessarily well-received on Wall Street. For example, Trumpflation (inflation specifically driven by Donald Trump's policies) is a genuine threat to the artificial…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions