Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
14%chance▲ 1
Install
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
The odds
33%chance▲ 5
How the odds have moved
Yes: 31% on Oct 20, 33% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 33% | ▲ 5 | 30¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 29.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: earthquake, California
Search ›-
Earthquake rocks California city overnight WednesdayA magnitude 3.2 earthquake was recorded in Stanislaus County, near Gustine, California, around 9:18 pm on Oct. 21. A 3.2-magnitude earthquake hit a California city late on Wednesday. The quake struck near the Stanislaus County city of… -
California coastal communities bracing for high tides, more potential damageCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. California… -
California beach communities confront unusually high tides: "It's very unpredictable"CBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
California cities dominate ranking of riskiest places for driversCalifornia drivers are getting a dangerous reality check, with six Golden State cities ranking among the 10 riskiest places to drive in America. San Diego came in second nationwide, with 28.2 crashes per 1,000 drivers, while Los Angeles… -
Deadly magnitude 7 earthquake hits TibetA magnitude 7 earthquake struck Tibet on Thursday, killing at least 16 people and injuring dozens, according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua. At least 339 houses have collapsed, and a rescue team has been sent to the epicenter. Deadly… -
The California climate move-out10/23/2026 07:30 PM EDT With help from Noah Baustin and Alex Nieves Extreme weather could force more Californians to leave their homes. | Ethan Swope/AP PACK YOUR BAGS: More wildfires, greater flooding, longer and more extreme heat waves… -
5 missing Marines found dead after helicopter crash in California, officials sayUpdated on: February 8, 2024 / 8:01 PM EST / CBS News The five Marines who went missing while traveling aboard a helicopter from Nevada to California have been found dead, officials said Thursday morning. The five Marines were assigned to… -
People evacuate building in Tibet as powerful earthquake strikes – videoChinese TV footage showed people evacuating a building and debris falling as a magnitude-7 earthquake struck Tibet on Thursday, killing at least 16 people. Search and rescue efforts were under way after at least 339 homes and 20 livestock… -
Geology professor discusses California coastal erosion concernsCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Geology… -
Remnants of meteor fireball found in CaliforniaApril 25, 2012 / 8:32 PM EDT / AP The rocks each weighed about 10 grams, or the weight of two nickels, said John T. Wasson, a longtime professor and expert in meteorites at UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics. Experts say… -
Are California water pumps putting endangered fish species at risk of extinction? Experts say so.Updated on: April 10, 2024 / 10:02 PM PDT / CBS Sacramento SACRAMENTO -- Are state and federal water pumps killing critically endangered fish species? Environmental activists say it is a well-documented problem in the Sacramento-San… -
Afghanistan Earthquake Today: Earthquake of Magnitude 5.2 Hits Hindu Kush Region – Check Epicentre, Affected Areas and MoreAfghanistan Earthquake Today: An earthquake of magnitude 5.2 happened in Afghanistan’s Hindu Kush region recently, according to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre. It happened at a depth of 110 kilometres. Its magnitude was…
Related markets
All earthquakes & disasters ›Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
3%chance▼ 2
Number of tornadoes in Oct 2026?
40.7median
0300
Median 40.7Middle half 32.8 – 48.6
8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
31%chance
Major volcano eruption in 2026?
41%At least 1
04
Number of tornadoes in Nov 2026?
50.9median
0300
Median 50.9Middle half 33.8 – 73.2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions