Diesel price at year-end 2026

Kalshi Finance › Commodities Closes Dec 30 · $145 today · $26.8K traded · $11.6K at stake · prices read 62 min ago

The odds

$6.23median

$3.80$7.80

Median $6.23Middle half $5.56 – $7.07

How the odds have moved

Median: $6.22 on Oct 20, $6.23 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above $4.00	99%		98¢	99¢	$1.01	732
Above $4.20	99%		98¢	99¢	$1.01	5.0K
Above $4.40	98%		97¢	98¢	$1.02	1.8K
Above $4.60	98%	▲ 1	98¢	99¢	$1.01	2.8K
Above $4.80	96%		95¢	96¢	$1.04	1.8K
Above $5.00	91%	▲ 2	90¢	91¢	$1.10	1.3K
Above $5.20	84%		83¢	84¢	$1.19	1.8K
Above $5.40	81%	▲ 7	76¢	85¢	$1.18	1.5K
Above $5.60	74%	▲ 2	71¢	76¢	$1.32	1.7K
Above $5.80	70%	▼ 11	68¢	71¢	$1.41	2.8K
Above $6.00	65%	▲ 7	62¢	67¢	$1.49	4.8K
Above $6.20	53%	▼ 1	52¢	53¢	$1.89	1.8K
Above $6.40	37%		36¢	37¢	$2.70	2.3K
Above $6.60	32%	▲ 2	31¢	32¢	$3.13	2.3K
Above $6.80	30%	▼ 10	22¢	31¢	$3.23	2.9K
Above $7.00	30%		10¢	24¢	$4.17	1.4K
Above $7.20	16%	▼ 3	13¢	19¢	$5.26	2.7K
Above $7.40	11%		10¢	11¢	$9.09	1.6K
Above $7.60	9%		8¢	9¢	$11.11	6.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Diesel

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Drought, fire and high diesel prices 'addin' up tough' for Oregon ranchersNPR · 13 h agoKatie Baltzor rides her side-by-side among the black angus cattle she raises near her home outside of Hines, Oregon. Anna King/NWPB hide caption HARNEY COUNTY, ORE. - Late bloomin' rabbitbrush – wads of swaying ochre – stud the roadsides…
Russian diesel tanker officially en route to USFox Business · 22 h agoRetired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro discusses President Donald Trump's diesel deal with Russia as a tanker heads to the US on 'America Reports.' Russian diesel tanker officially en route to US Retired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Arnold…
First tanker of Russian diesel sets sail for the US in Trump's controversial deal with PutinThe Washington Post · 40 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The Kremlin says that…
What can be done to combat all-time-high diesel prices?CBS News · 40 h agoCurrent diesel prices are at an all-time high, impacting the transportation industry and the price you pay for many items. CBS News correspondent Marybel Gonzalez has what the country is doing to pump the brakes on rising costs. What can…
First Russian diesel tanker heads to New York after Trump's deal with Putin to lower fuel pricesFox Business · 20 h agoRetired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro discusses President Donald Trump's diesel deal with Russia as a tanker heads to the US on 'America Reports.' The first tanker with 40,000 tons of diesel left for New York from Russia earlier…
Russian diesel tanker heads to the U.S., the first since Trump’s deal with PutinNBC News · 2 days agoMorning Rundown: Trump predicts GOP defeat in key race, Airbnb sets new rules for hosts, and World Series begins as lockout looms A tanker loaded with diesel fuel set sail Friday from Russia for the United States, the first shipment since…
First Russian diesel shipment from Putin-Trump deal headed for US — but it won’t arrive before MidtermsNew York Post · 2 days agoThe first shipment of Russian diesel bound for the US, as part of a deal brokered with Moscow by President Trump, is aboard a tanker bound for New York, according to ship-tracking data. The Malta-flagged tanker “Agoio Fanades” was loaded…
Trump to use the Defense Production Act to boost U.S. gas and diesel production. Could it help?CBS News · 2 days agoOctober 23, 2026 / 11:24 AM EDT / CBS News President Trump on Thursday said his administration will invoke the Defense Production Act to spend $150 million to boost gasoline and diesel production in the U.S., the latest effort from the…
Trump administration focuses on farmers amid rising diesel costsCBS News · 3 days agoCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Trump administration…
Trump Diesel Relief Stalls as US Diesel Hits USD 6.28@analyticsinme · 25 h agoPresident Donald Trump's campaign to reduce diesel costs has yet to halt rising prices ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. US diesel rose nearly 10 cents last week to USD 6.28 a gallon, staying near record highs, according to the…
Ukraine war briefing: Russian diesel tankers headed for North America, says Moscow, as US tries to revive peace talksthe Guardian · 40 h agoTankers part of US-Russia deal that could see 500,000 metric tonnes of fuel supplied to world market this month. What we know on day 1,704 ... Ukraine war briefing: Russian diesel tankers headed for North America, says Moscow, as US tries…
Columnist: Iowa farmers have seen diesel costs soar, driving midterm movementFox News · 3 days agoBoston Globe columnist Kristin Tate discusses how rising diesel costs are impacting midterm voters on ‘Fox & Friends First.’ ... Columnist: Iowa farmers have seen diesel costs soar, driving midterm movement Boston Globe columnist Kristin…

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Finance › Commodities

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?

$107.37high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $107.37.

Reaches $100>99%
Reaches $10568%

Falls to $9528%
Falls to $909%

Already reached: ↑ $90, ↑ $95, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↑ $90

Finance › Commodities

US gas prices tomorrow (Oct 26, 2026)

$4.29median

$4.25$4.34

Median $4.29Middle half $4.28 – $4.29

Finance › Commodities

US gas prices this week (Oct 26, 2026)

$4.29median

$4.08$4.52

Median $4.29Middle half $4.28 – $4.30

Finance › Commodities

Diesel price on Election Day (November 3, 2026)

$6.45median

$4.20$7.40

Median $6.45Middle half $6.30 – $6.56

Finance › Commodities

New Jersey gas price at year-end 2026

4.37median

3.605.10

Median 4.37Middle half 4.20 – 4.65

Finance › Commodities

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of October 19 2026?

$102.50high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $102.50.

Reaches $100>99%
Reaches $105<1%

Falls to $95<1%
Falls to $90<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAAA

Trading closesDec 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$26.8K (46,887 contracts)

Today$145

This week$821

At stake$11.6K

In the news49 headlines today, 1,036 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 is above $4.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions