Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%▲ 1
- Republican Party9%
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Midterms: Democratic share of white non-college vote? (Nov 6, 2026)
The odds
36%median
28%44%
Median 36%Middle half 32.29% – 40.08%
How the odds have moved
Median: 36.32% on Oct 19, 36% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 30% | 90% | 85¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | ||
| Above 32% | 77% | 72¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | ||
| Above 34% | 63% | ▲ 2 | 58¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | |
| Above 36% | 50% | 45¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | ||
| Above 38% | 38% | ▲ 1 | 33¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | |
| Above 40% | 26% | ▲ 2 | 22¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 48.00 |
| Above 42% | 13% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 7.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms
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Ohio voters motivated ahead of midtermsFox News' Steve Doocy visits JC's Restaurant in Burton, Ohio, to hear from voters about the tightening governor's race. Local residents share their perspectives on the candidates and key issues. Ohio voters motivated ahead of midterms Fox… -
Countdown on until 2026 midterm electionCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Countdown on until 2026… -
Prediction markets' credibility 'on the line' in midterms"This is truly the first prediction-market election," Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said. The midterm elections represent a major chance for prediction market platforms like Kalshi to prove their forecasting chops. | Jenny Kane/AP America’s… -
Ohio voters concerned about socialism ahead of midtermsFox News' Steve Doocy visits JC's Restaurant in Burton, Ohio, to speak with local voters about the upcoming midterm elections. Customers share their perspectives on political candidates, the economy and the key issues driving them to the… -
Honig: DOJ overstepping its authority ahead of midtermsCNN Senior Legal Analyst Elie Honig says that Attorney General Todd Blanche and the DOJ have 'no legal relevance' to intervene in Alaska and California because the constitution makes it clear that states handle state elections Honig: DOJ… -
How will gas prices influence U.S. midterm voters?With just over a week to go until the U.S. midterm elections, fuel prices have hit a new milestone, which could complicate the message of President Donald Trump and the Republicans. Matt Egan runs through the numbers. How will gas prices… -
2026 Midterms: Trump Attacks El-Sayed, Election LawsuitsPresident Donald Trump escalated attacks against Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed as Republicans seek to hold the Senate, while legal fights over disputed ballots in California and Alaska raise fresh questions about election… -
Just over a week until to 2026 midterm electionsCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Just over a week until to… -
Early voting surges as Trump launches midterm blitzHistorian Tom Del Beccaro analyzes the surge in early voting numbers across Texas and other key states. He also discusses President Donald Trump's midterm campaign strategy as candidates enter the final stretch. Early voting surges as… -
Illinois U.S. Senate seat among races in 2026 midterm electionsCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Illinois U.S. Senate seat… -
WATCH LIVE: Vance holds midterm campaign rally in Belgrade, MontanaVice President Vance speaks at a rally in Montana ahead of the midterm elections. WATCH LIVE: Vance holds midterm campaign rally in Belgrade, Montana Vice President Vance speaks at a rally in Montana ahead of the midterm elections. -
Steve Doocy visits Ohio restaurant to hear from midterm votersFox News' Steve Doocy reports live from JC's Restaurant in Burton, Ohio, to speak with local voters about the upcoming midterm elections. Customers share their thoughts on the economy, the candidates and overall political climate. Steve…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions