Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party9%
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Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?
The odds
8.28%median
1%12%
Median 8.28%Middle half 4.86% – 9.63%
How the odds have moved
Median: 7.63% on Oct 19, 8.28% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2% | 94% | 89¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above 3% | 87% | ▼ 1 | 82¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | |
| Above 4% | 81% | ▼ 1 | 76¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 1.00 |
| Above 5% | 74% | ▼ 1 | 69¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 1.00 |
| Above 6% | 68% | ▼ 1 | 63¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 1.00 |
| Above 7% | 61% | ▼ 1 | 56¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 1.00 |
| Above 8% | 55% | ▼ 1 | 50¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 200 |
| Above 9% | 37% | ▼ 1 | 32¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | |
| Above 10% | 18% | ▼ 1 | 13¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 16.00 |
| Above 11% | 11% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms
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Trump, Obama hold rallies ahead of midtermsPresident Trump is holding several rallies, including in deep-red states, in the week before the midterm as he tries to keep his party in control of Congress. Former President Barack Obama is also headlining events, hoping to help flip… -
How Trump and his allies are sowing doubt ahead of the midtermsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A Post analysis found… -
David Avella breaks down GOP midterm strategy as Trump campaigns in TexasFox News' Alex Hogan reports on Trump's Mississippi rally and upcoming campaign stops in Texas. GOPAC chairman David Avella also discusses Republican midterm strategy as President Donald Trump rallies voters. David Avella breaks down GOP… -
Map Shows Donald Trump Approval Rating in Every State 1 Week Until MidtermsOct 27, 2026 at 04:30 AM EDT Oct 27, 2026 at 05:19 AM EDT One week before the midterm elections, President Donald Trump is underwater in 39 states and every major battleground, according to new polling. The figures come from Civiqs’… -
Trump Offers $1M for Election Fraud Convictions Week Before MidtermsOct 26, 2026 at 06:23 PM EDT President Donald Trump has offered $1 million to people who report voter fraud that results in an arrest and conviction, raising the financial stakes of his election-integrity push just over a week before the… -
Trump travels to Mississippi to campaign before the midtermsPresident Trump is travelling to Mississippi to campaign before the midterms. The state's U.S. Senate race has seen millions of dollars in last-minute spending. President Trump kicks off his final week of campaign travel before the… -
WATCH LIVE: Trump rallies voters in Mississippi ahead of midtermsThe president is campaigning for Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. WATCH LIVE: Trump rallies voters in Mississippi ahead of midterms The president is campaigning for Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. -
Trump takes campaign blitz to Texas with one week until midterms and more top headlines1. Trump takes campaign blitz to Texas with one week until midterms 2. 'Dark money’ group accused of 'scheme' to tip election 3. Israel heads into deeply divided election as Oct. 7 reckoning looms ‘ROC’ THE HOUSE — Super Bowl LXI halftime… -
One week until midterms, Trump takes campaign blitz to Texas as DOJ moves against ComeyPresident Donald Trump is scheduled to hold two Texas rallies as Republicans work to protect their congressional majorities, while a new Justice Department effort to prosecute former FBI Director James Comey intensifies the political… -
BATTLE FOR LEGACY: Obama, Trump take center stage in midterm homestretch blitzPresident Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama trade barbs as they campaign for opposing candidates in Michigan's Senate race. This duel is about more than the battle for power in Congress. BATTLE FOR LEGACY: Obama, Trump take… -
Republican, Democratic strategists break down pre-midterm rhetoric from Trump, ObamaCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. GOP, Dem… -
Trump to Rally in Mississippi as GOP Midterm Worries Grow: Election UpdatesDemocrats see a fleeting opportunity to shake up the electoral map, targeting Republicans strongholds like Texas and Kansas. And in South Carolina, another unexpected battleground, two former governors issued a rare bipartisan joint…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions