Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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Midterms: Democratic share of men's vote? (Nov 6, 2026)
The odds
46.9%median
38%54%
Median 46.9%Middle half 44.52% – 49.29%
How the odds have moved
Median: 46.88% on Oct 19, 46.9% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 40% | 94% | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| Above 42% | 88% | 83¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | ||
| Above 44% | 81% | 76¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | ||
| Above 46% | 60% | 55¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | ||
| Above 48% | 39% | 34¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | ||
| Above 50% | 18% | 13¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 23.00 | |
| Above 52% | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms
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President Trump continues midterm election ralliesCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
Data center boom puts GOP in a bind before midtermsCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
Republicans skeptical of polling data ahead of midtermsHouse Majority Leader Steve Scalise discusses the fight for the House majority. Scalise encourages people to 'show up and vote' in order for GOP to hold the House. Republicans skeptical of polling data ahead of midterms House Majority… -
Trump casts his midterm ballot early in FloridaWEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Donald Trump cast his ballot in the midterm elections Saturday, saying he voted for all Republicans in Florida before speaking at a Georgia rally. Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived at their West… -
Six states are up for grabs this midterm electionThe 'Fox News Sunday' panel analyzes the latest Fox News Power Rankings and battleground poll numbers. The 'Fox News Sunday' panel analyzes the latest Fox News Power Rankings and battleground poll ... Six states are up for grabs this… -
Poll: Data center backlash builds as midterms nearA POLITICO Poll shows Americans are increasingly against building data centers near their homes and favor candidates who oppose them more than ones who support them. 10/25/2026 7:00 AM EDT Data centers have become a major risk for the… -
Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midtermsFox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on the closely watched Ohio Senate and governor races ahead of the midterm elections. Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midterms Fox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on… -
Trump rallies Republicans in Georgia ahead of midtermsFox News' Madison Scarpino reports from Perry, Georgia, where Trump rallies supporters for Republican candidates. Trump rallies Republicans in Georgia ahead of midterms Fox News' Madison Scarpino reports from Perry, Georgia, where Trump… -
2026 Midterm Elections: Trump, Obama Rally MichiganPresident Donald Trump is set to campaign in Michigan as Democrats deploy Barack Obama and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while a Justice Department lawsuit threatens to complicate the closely watched Alaska Senate race. President Donald Trump… -
Trump continues to rally for GOP support with midterms fast approachingCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
Why Democrats see a path to victory in Mississippi midterm electionCNN National Political Writer Fredreka Schouten joins Fredricka Whitfield to break down why Democrat Scott Colom is hopeful that he can unseat incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. Despite Donald Trump winning the state by 23… -
No ordinary midterm — this election is a stark choice for America’s futureThere are two ways of looking at the midterm elections, now just a week away. From one angle, it’s a simple referendum on the issues and politicians of the day. From another, it involves a far deeper conflict of visions (as Thomas Sowell…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions