Will Elon purchase Ryanair? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Kalshi Finance › IPOs & deals Closes Dec 31 · $6.3K traded · $1.5K at stake · prices read 52 min ago

The odds

5%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 6% on Oct 20, 5% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	5%		2¢	8¢	$12.50	126.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Elon, Ryanair

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SpaceX closes $40 billion debt deal for AI chips, Elon Musk saysCNBC · 24 h agoElon Musk said SpaceX has closed $40 billion in debt financing to purchase graphics processing units, or GPUs, used to power artificial intelligence systems. In a post on X on Sunday, Musk said SpaceX had closed the financing, adding that…
Elon Musk REVEALS why Starlink was disrupted in UkraineFox News · 31 h agoSpaceX CEO Elon Musk explained in an X post why Starlink access was disrupted in Ukraine, saying that the country's military violated the terms of service. Elon Musk REVEALS why Starlink was disrupted in Ukraine
US military gives Elon Musk’s SpaceX access to sensitive tracking datathe Guardian · 36 h agoThis gives the company an advantage in tracking objects in orbit, raising national security concerns and fears of greater control over the space industry The US military has given Elon Musk’s SpaceX access to restricted space tracking…
Elon Musk Says Ukraine Violated Starlink TermsNewsweek · 47 h agoOct 24, 2026 at 05:30 PM EDT Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Elon Musk said Kyiv violated the terms of SpaceX’s commercial Starlink service by using it for offensive drone strikes, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said…
Elon Musk details why Ukraine’s Starlink service was disruptedFox News · 30 h agoFox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on the latest Russia attacks on Ukraine and breaks down concerns about Starlink access. The ‘Fox News Sunday’ panel provides analysis. Elon Musk details why Ukraine’s Starlink…
SpaceX secures $40B in financing for GPUs as Elon Musk warns of AI cloud industry consolidationFox Business · 19 h ago'The Big Money Show' panel discusses SpaceX reporting a 161% revenue increase as Elon Musk addresses a potential Tesla merger. Elon Musk said SpaceX has closed $40 billion in debt financing to purchase graphics processing units for its…
Neocloud stocks fall as Elon Musk says more than 200 of them face 'guppy-level death'CNBC · 16 h agoNvidia CEO Jensen Huang sits down exclusively with CNBC's Arjun Kharpal and discusses the company's $10 billion investment in European start-ups, as well as recent concerns around neocloud stocks. - Nebius, CoreWeave and Iren all dropped…
AI cloud computing companies face ‘guppy-level death’, Elon Musk warns, as funding dries up – business livethe Guardian · 17 h agoThe flow of funding which has helped the AI industry to grow rapidly could be running dry, at least for some firms in the cloud computing world, Elon Musk has warned. The world’s richest person declared last night that at least 200…
Elon Musk’s Grok Finally Delivers First Installment of ‘Historically Accurate’ ‘The Odyssey’Rolling Stone · 29 h agoThree months after Elon Musk promised to make a “historically accurate” version of The Odyssey using AI, Grok shared the first installment of its response to Christopher Nolan’s cinematic epic. When Nolan’s take on Homer’s epic poem…
Elon Musk is now a mega-donor unlike anyone this country has ever seenCNN · 14 h agoMore than $16 billion and counting has been raised during the 2026 election cycle, according to an early October tally by the Federal Election Commission. Most of that money flowed not through candidates or political parties, but rather…
Elon Musk says SpaceX closed Ukraine Starlink ‘loophole’ after limits hit drone operationsNBC News · 38 h agoElon Musk has said his company imposed limits on the use of its Starlink satellite system in Ukraine last week, after curbs led to disruption to Ukrainian military operations. Ukraine said Saturday that both Starlink, run by Musk’s SpaceX…
Ukraine disputes Elon Musk’s claim that its military violated Starlink terms during drone operationsCNBC · 30 h agoSerhii Beskrestnov, a defense technology advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, wrote an online post on Sunday contesting Musk's reason for temporarily throttling Ukraine's access to high-speed service from SpaceX's Starlink…

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October 31, 2026<1%
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31%$1.75–$2.0T

$1.75–$2.0T31%▲ 2
$2.0–$2.25T21%▲ 2
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$2.25–$2.5T11%▲ 3
$1.25–$1.5T4%▼ 2
$2.5–$2.75T4%▲ 2
<$1.25T3%▼ 3
$2.75–$3.0T3%▲ 1
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What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

99%$ANT

$ANT99%▲ 45
$ANTH<1%▼ 24
$ANAI<1%▼ 3

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$CLDE<1%▼ 4
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$CLAU<1%
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In which month will Anthropic IPO?

87%November 2026

November 202687%▲ 27
December 20267%▼ 16
January 20273%▼ 4

13 more

April 20271%▼ 2
March 20271%▼ 3
May 20271%▼ 1
October 20261%▼ 1
June 20271%
February 2027<1%▼ 1
July 2027<1%
August 2027<1%
October 2027<1%
November 2027<1%
December 2027<1%
September 2027<1%
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When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

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Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
Before Dec 1, 202686%▲ 12
Before Jan 1, 202795%▲ 15

3 more

Before Feb 1, 202796%▲ 8
Before Mar 1, 202796%▲ 4
Before Apr 1, 202797%▲ 4

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onRyanair

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$6.3K (126,051 contracts)

At stake$1.5K

In the news109 headlines today, 1,329 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Elon Musk or Tesla or SpaceX has taken a stake of above 0% in Ryanair before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

Ryanair Holdings plcRYAAY · about the company53.00+0.89%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions