Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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Closest House race in 2026?
The odds
4%PA-01
- PA-014%
- AL-024%
- AZ-024%
- CO-034%
- FL-144%
- FL-254%
- IA-034%
- MI-044%
- MI-074%
- NC-114%
- NY-174%
- TX-344%
22 more
- WI-034%
- IA-024%
- ME-024%
- MT-014%
- NC-014%
- OH-094%
- TX-154%
- TX-354%
- VA-014%
- CO-044%
- FL-074%
- FL-094%
- FL-134%
- FL-224%
- MI-104%
- MN-014%
- NV-024%
- NY-214%
- SC-014%
- TX-234%
- WI-014%
- AK-AL4%
How the odds have moved
PA-01: 3% on Oct 19, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-01 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| AL-02 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| AZ-02 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| CO-03 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| FL-14 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| FL-25 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| IA-03 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| MI-04 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| MI-07 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| NC-11 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| NY-17 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| TX-34 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| WI-03 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| IA-02 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| ME-02 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| MT-01 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| NC-01 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| OH-09 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| TX-15 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| TX-35 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| VA-01 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| CO-04 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| FL-07 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| FL-09 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| FL-13 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| FL-22 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| MI-10 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| MN-01 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| NV-02 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| NY-21 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| SC-01 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| TX-23 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| WI-01 | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | ||
| AK-AL | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Closest House
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Map Shows Closest House Races as Cook Shifts 19 Seats Toward DemocratsOct 23, 2026 at 12:01 PM EDT Oct 23, 2026 at 12:04 PM EDT No seats were shifted toward Republicans in the latest update from the elections forecaster published on Friday. The update brings six seats that were previously classified as… -
Musk cash pours into Lawler fight in New YorkElon Musk’s political network is once again making a play in one of New York’s closest House races, with more than $500,000 spent to help Republican Rep. Mike Lawler defend his seat in the Hudson Valley. Lawler, a moderate Republican… -
Democrats hope a rematch can dislodge Trump loyalist Perry in PennsylvaniaHome News Highlights Elections Democrats hope a rematch can dislodge Trump loyalist Perry in Pennsylvania Perry backed Trump’s signature tax-cutting laws in 2017 and 2025. He’s aggressively defended Trump’s war with Iran. And when Trump… -
Republicans are spending millions to oust a Democrat who won by 187 votes. Should he worry?Nonprofit, nonpartisan news for the Valley Rep. Adam Gray, a Democrat from Merced, won the closest House race in 2024 by just 187 votes. Now the GOP, which is hungry for a win in California, is spending millions to try and oust him… -
GOP Ad Blitz Targets Senate, Not House“Republicans have an enormous financial edge in this year’s midterms. But with two weeks until the election, it is now clear that their spending advantage is overwhelmingly playing out only in the advertising battle for the Senate — not… -
America’s Reddest State is No Longer Considered Safe For RepublicansOct 16, 2026 at 06:46 AM EDT Oct 16, 2026 at 06:47 AM EDT America’s most Republican state is no longer considered entirely safe for the GOP in the race for its sole House seat, according to a leading election forecaster. The change means a… -
Will Scott Perry’s Trump ties cost his seat?HARRISBURG — Of all the Republican members of Congress who represent swing districts, there may be none as closely linked to President Donald Trump as Scott Perry of Pennsylvania. Perry backed Trump’s signature tax-cutting laws in 2017 and… -
Lawler Turns Sanctuary-State Logic Against His Democrat Opponent in Debate That Could Decide the House – 100PercentFedUp.com – by DonaldMike Lawler found the fault line in New York Democrats’ immigration argument Wednesday night, and he kept pressing until his opponent stepped directly onto it. Democratic challenger Cait Conley said the illegal immigrant accused of killing… -
Republicans pull millions from two crucial House races latest glaring sign they're bracing for a blue waveBy SAMANTHA LOREN, US POLITICAL REPORTER Republicans are throwing in the towel on a handful of races they're projected to lose, moving millions of dollars away from some of their own House incumbents. The latest shake-up affects New Jersey… -
US midterms 2026: Why campaign groups are moving money between House and Senate racesThe Economic Times With just three weeks left before the midterm elections, campaign spending is shifting across the country Republicans are pulling back from some competitive House races, while Democrats are looking for extra money to…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions