CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.23%median
-0.2%1.1%
Median 0.23%Middle half 0.14% – 0.3%
Install
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September (September 2026)
The odds
0.02median
-0.500.30
Median 0.02Middle half -0.09 – 0.15
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.02 on Oct 19, 0.02 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.40 | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | 100 | ||
| Above -0.30 | 95% | 92¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 52.00 | |
| Above -0.20 | 91% | ▼ 1 | 87¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 13.00 |
| Above -0.10 | 78% | ▲ 2 | 73¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 200 |
| Above 0.00 | 56% | ▼ 1 | 51¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 400 |
| Above 0.10 | 33% | ▼ 1 | 29¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 200 |
| Above 0.20 | 17% | 12¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
AI boom complicates Federal Reserve’s inflation fightExplore the BridgeTower Media network. 36 publications across 4 industries. AI boom complicates Federal Reserve’s inflation fight Federal Reserve officials say rapid artificial intelligence investment by companies such as Amazon, Apple and… -
Could Donald Trump Save the Federal Reserve?So who is Warsh? As an undergraduate at Stanford, he worked as a research assistant to Milton Friedman, and he has retained his teacher’s skepticism toward Federal Reserve overreach and intervention in financial markets. Friedman famously… - Concept 31: The Federal Reserve StructureThe Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. It oversees the nation’s money supply (through monetary policy), processes payments, and supervises and regulates banks. The U.S. Congress created the Federal Reserve in 1913 in…
-
Laurene Powell Jobs Invested $250 Million in David Ellison’s SkydanceBillionaire and philanthropist Laurene Powell Jobs paid $250 million to acquire a stake in Skydance, the David Ellison-led company formed by the merger of Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery. Powell Jobs, founder and president of… -
Gold edges higher on softer oil; Fed rate outlook in focusGold prices edged higher on Monday as softer oil prices offered support, while investors assessed the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year and looked for fresh signals on the U.S. central bank's policy… -
British Pound gains ground amid diverging Fed-BoE expectationsGBP/USD gains ground after posting modest losses the previous day, trading around 1.3310 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) weakens on growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve… -
Swiss Franc gains as US Dollar weakens on Fed rate pause betsUSD/CHF depreciates after posting modest gains the previous day, trading around 0.8250 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) weakens under growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed)… -
End of an Era: The Dallas Mavericks have waived Dwight PowellThe Dallas Mavericks waived veteran forward/center Dwight Powell on Monday. The all-time glue guy ends his 12-year run with the team as by far the most tenured player on the roster in a move that signals the end of an era for the Mavericks… -
Pound strengthens as Fed and Bank of England policy paths divergeEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered… -
Dallas Mavericks waive veteran big man Dwight PowellThe Dallas Mavericks have made a somewhat significant move after the preseason. The Dallas Mavericks have waived John Poulakidas and Seth Lundy as the organization finalizes its roster ahead of the ... - Dallas Mavericks waive veteran big… - Markets Reprice October Fed Rate Hike Odds to 46% After Hotter U.S. CPIThe shift indicates a significant change in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. The latest probabilities show that traders are assigning substantially greater weight to a rate increase, although the…
-
United States Dollar Index weakens below 102.00 as traders assess Fed rate outlookThe Bureau of Labor Statistics showed last week that US inflation came in hotter than expected, with wholesale prices rising 6.3% YoY in September. This marks the biggest jump since 2022. Additionally, the headline Consumer Price Index…
Related markets
All inflation ›CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
3.89%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.89%Middle half 3.79% – 4.06%
October Inflation China - Annual
0.94%median
0.5%1.4%
Median 0.94%Middle half 0.77% – 1%
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
3.56%median
0.6%4.9%
Median 3.56%Middle half 3.18% – 3.77%
Core CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)
2.88%median
2%3.6%
Median 2.88%Middle half 2.72% – 3%
Core CPI in November (Nov 2026)
0.2%median
-0.1%1.1%
Median 0.2%Middle half 0.12% – 0.27%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.