Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party10%
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How many House seats will Democrats win in California? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
48median
4450
Median 48Middle half 48 – 48
How the odds have moved
Median: 48 on Oct 20, 48 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 44 | 5% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 5¢ | $18.52 | 1.7K |
| 44 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 1.3K | ||
| 45 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | 753 | |
| 46 | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $40.00 | 869 | |
| 47 | 12% | 11¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 3.6K | |
| 48 | 75% | ▼ 1 | 76¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 19.2K |
| 49 | 5% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 7¢ | $14.71 | 1.6K |
| 50 and above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 703 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House, California
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California abortion rights advocate sweats Biden drag on House racesJodi Hicks, president of Planned Parenthood California, indicated Democrats were taking a big risk in losing the House if they stuck with President Joe Biden. Jodi Hicks, an ally of the vice president and a major player in the capital city… -
Ex-NFL punter turned California Democrat sparks fury with ‘racist’ banana stunt: ‘Toxic mockery’California Democrats are facing backlash over a political mailer depicting a Latina Republican candidate as a banana sticker, with the Orange County GOP blasting the image as a racially degrading attack. The mailer, paid for by the… -
Jeffries: Democrats "on the verge of taking back control" of the HouseCNN's Manu Raju hits the campaign trail in California with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who could be just months away from becoming the first Black speaker of the House of Representatives. While confident, Jeffries is also… -
GOP firebrand Luna joins California Democrat Khanna in surprising push to overhaul workplace rulesRep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., details the Workers’ Right To Compete Act, a bipartisan bill he introduced with Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., which would ban companies from imposing non-compete agreements on workers making less than $100,000 a… -
Democrats poised for significant House gains, Cook Political Report estimatesThe nonpartisan Cook Political Report projects Democrats will most likely flip between 12 and 22 seats in November — potentially giving them bigger majorities than the ones they won during blue waves in the 2006 and 2018 midterms. On… -
Democrat hoping to flip Nebraska House seat pushing for action on affordabilityCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Democrat hoping to… -
Senate Democrat Probes Tether Payments to Ex-White House Crypto Adviser’s FirmTether is facing fresh scrutiny in the Senate over millions of dollars that reportedly flowed to a firm co-owned by Bo Hines while he helped shape U.S. stablecoin law at the White House. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., the top Democrat… -
Map Shows Closest House Races as Cook Shifts 19 Seats Toward DemocratsOct 23, 2026 at 12:01 PM EDT Oct 23, 2026 at 12:04 PM EDT No seats were shifted toward Republicans in the latest update from the elections forecaster published on Friday. The update brings six seats that were previously classified as… -
California lawmakers discuss redistricting's impact on HouseEditor's note: This is part of a series on the June 2 primary election in California. As the Golden State’s voters prepare for the June 2 primary election, California’s legislators spoke with The Center Square about whether the state’s… -
Thune weighs nightmare scenario for GOP as Democrats threaten to flip HouseElection forecasters see Democrats taking the House, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told Fox News Digital he is confident Republicans will hold the chamber, and he won’t have to work with potential Speaker Hakeem Jeffries… -
How Democrats could win the House, how the GOP could hang on, and where to look for a waveDemocrats must compete deeper in territory Trump won in 2024 to make big gains in this year’s midterms, but the political environment is on their side. In 2024, America swung to the right, powering Donald Trump back to the White House with… -
Why Cook Political Report just shifted 19 more House races in Democrats' directionDana Bash is joined by Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report as the nonpartisan ratings outlet shifts 19 House races in Democrats' direction. She explains which races they moved and why - including which Republican incumbents are facing…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions