Average Wall Street bonus in 2026
$283,750median
$175,000$375,000
Median $283,750Middle half $262,500 – $305,729
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Median Big Law starting salary in 2027
The odds
$232,690median
$210,000$250,000
Median $232,690Middle half $231,228 – $234,152
How the odds have moved
Median: $232,635 on Oct 19, $232,690 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $215,000 | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| Above $220,000 | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| Above $225,000 | 97% | 93¢ | $1.04 | |||
| Above $230,000 | 96% | 92¢ | $1.04 | 450 | ||
| Above $235,000 | 11% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | |
| Above $240,000 | 6% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 2.00 |
| Above $245,000 | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | 350 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Median Big Law
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All jobs ›US retail jobs added this holiday season (September–December 2026)
570,238median
250,000650,000
Median 570,238
Unemployment in October (Oct 2026)
4.15%median
3.6%5.1%
Median 4.15%Middle half 4.08% – 4.23%
October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP
15%U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k15%
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k10%▲ 7
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above6%
8 more
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k5%▲ 1
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 50-99k5%▲ 1
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above5%▲ 1
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k1%
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k1%
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k1%
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k1%▼ 21
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above1%▼ 4
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
10%5.0%
4.5%13%
UK retail sales in October (October 2026)
50%Above 2.0%
-2%3%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions