Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?
The odds
97%Before Jan 1
- Before Jan 197%
- Before Nov 1495%▲ 1
- Before Nov 1193%
- Before Nov 691%▼ 1
- Before 4AM Nov 477%▲ 2
- Before 1AM Nov 459%▲ 5
- Before Nov 438%▲ 2
- Before 11PM Nov 38%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1: 97% on Oct 20, 97% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1 | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Before Nov 14 | 95% | ▲ 1 | 93¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 202 |
| Before Nov 11 | 93% | 90¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 5.0K | |
| Before Nov 6 | 91% | ▼ 1 | 89¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 3.5K |
| Before 4AM Nov 4 | 77% | ▲ 2 | 74¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 4.5K |
| Before 1AM Nov 4 | 59% | ▲ 5 | 55¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | 3.0K |
| Before Nov 4 | 38% | ▲ 2 | 35¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 4.0K |
| Before 11PM Nov 3 | 8% | ▼ 2 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 4.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: U.S. House
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Israel detains U.S. House candidate, activists amid West Bank olive harvestThe Washington Post TEL AVIV — Israeli security forces on Wednesday detained dozens of volunteer monitors in an olive grove near Bethlehem, including a Democratic candidate for U.S. Congress. They also sealed off Palestinian farmland… -
Democrat Nancy Lacore outlines priorities in South Carolina U.S. House District 1 raceCHARLESTON, S.C. (WTOC) - Democrat Nancy Lacore said ending corruption and lowering the cost of living are focuses of her campaign for the South Carolina U.S. House District 1 seat. Lacore is running against Republican Jenny Costa… -
With a U.S. House seat at stake, Washington Republican John Braun targets trans girls in sportsJohn Braun is championing Initiative 638 in a race against Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez that could help determine control of the House. Washington Sen. John Braun looks out onto the factory floor at Braun Northwest’s Chehalis… -
Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt outlines priorities in South Carolina U.S. House District 1 raceCHARLESTON, S.C. (WTOC) - Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt said protecting her home and addressing affordability are driving her campaign for the South Carolina U.S. House District 1 seat in the Nov. 3 election. Honeycutt is running… -
Voters in this Pennsylvania swing region could hold key to U.S. House controlOctober 20, 2026 / 6:01 PM EDT / CBS Philadelphia Driving on Leithsville Road in Hellertown, Northampton County, it's campaign sign after campaign sign lining the street. These Lehigh Valley residents are no strangers to the spotlight… -
Vote Bill Hill for U.S. HouseCovering the Chilkat Valley and Haines, Alaska since 1966 Bill Hill, candidate for U.S. House of Representatives, is relatively new to the political scene and likely unknown to many Haines residents. We are writing to voice our support for… -
Fundraising tight in Iowa’s competitive U.S. House racesDemocrat Christina Bohannan (left) speaks Oct. 21, 2024, during a debate with Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks hosted by Iowa PBS in Johnston. The two are candidates again for the U.S. House seat in Iowa’s 1st Congressional… -
Race for U.S. House, 13th District: Republican John JoyceRepublican incumbent John Joyce did not respond to WPSU's requests for an interview. He's running to keep his seat the U.S. House, 13th District, which covers a large section of southcentral Pennsylvania. He's challenged by Democrat Beth… -
Utah’s U.S. House races: What to know before Nov. 3Every two years, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives go before voters, including Utah’s four. This year’s midterm elections, on Nov. 3, arrive halfway through President Donald J. Trump’s term. Following a court-ordered… -
Tucson Now: Congresswoman Grijalva’s plan to keep U.S. House AZ-07With early voting underway and Election Day just around the corner, U.S. Rep. Adelita Grijalva joined Tucson Now to lay out her platform and make her pitch to voters across Arizona’s 7th Congressional ... TUCSON, Ariz. (13 News) - With… -
PACs backing Bill Hill discourage votes for incarcerated Democrat in Alaska's U.S. House raceOct. 22—JUNEAU — With less than two weeks until Election Day, political groups have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars highlighting that the top vote-getting Democrat on the ballot in Alaska's U.S. House race is serving a 20-year… -
DeBoer, Jock challenge Scholten seeking third term in U.S. HouseFirst Presbyterian Church of Grand Haven will host a pair of free concerts this fall as part… Halloween is right around the corner, and there are plenty of opportunities to celebrate the… Green Party candidate for U.S. House of…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions