How low will gas prices in California get this year? (2026)

Kalshi Finance › Commodities Closes Dec 31 · $4 today · $2.4K traded · $949 at stake · prices read 36 min ago

The odds

5%Below $4.10

Falls to $4.105%
Falls to $45%
Falls to $3.905%
Falls to $3.804%

How the odds have moved

Falls to $3.80: 5% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Below $3.80	4%		3¢	5¢	$20.00	5.7K
Below $3.90	5%	▼ 1	5¢	7¢	$14.29	6.5K
Below $4.00	5%		4¢	7¢	$14.29	12.7K
Below $4.10	5%		2¢	6¢	$16.67	27.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: gas prices, gasoline, California

Search ›

Rising gas prices, cost of living weigh on voters ahead of midtermsCBS News · 18 h agoCBS News Miami is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WFOR-TV and channel 4, CBS News Miami offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Rising gas prices, cost…
Michigan gas prices climb overnight as drivers wait for reliefCBS News · 39 h agoOctober 24, 2026 / 12:13 AM EDT / CBS Detroit Michigan drivers are paying significantly more for gas than they did a year ago, with the statewide average at about $4.77 per gallon, according to AAA. That is up from about $3.10 per gallon…
Issue at Exxon Mobil Joliet Refinery contributing to high Chicago area gas pricesCBS News · 2 days agoOctober 23, 2026 / 6:58 AM CDT / CBS Chicago An issue at the Exxon Mobil Joliet Refinery is contributing to the skyrocketing gas prices in the Chicago area. An Exxon Mobil spokesperson told CBS News Chicago that the refinery is "working to…
Issue at Joliet Refinery contributing to high Chicago area gas pricesCBS News · 2 days agoCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Issue at Joliet Refinery…
Trump lacks options to lower gas prices without ending warsemafor.com · 3 days agoPresident Donald Trump has just one way left to bring down gas prices: ending the Iran war. Already, his administration has expanded access to red-dyed diesel; unlocked Russian diesel; waived the Jones Act; and tapped the US strategic…
Could gas prices in rural Alaska decide the Senate?NBC News · 3 days agoNBC News Could gas prices in rural Alaska decide the Senate?
Trump is desperate to bring gas prices down. The solution might be in India.NBC News · 3 days agoNBC News As President Donald Trump tries to contain soaring gas prices ahead of crucial midterm elections, his administration is hoping that part of the solution lies in a small coastal city in India.
Decoding why California’s gas prices are higher than a chain of islands deep in the PacificCalifornia Post · 4 days agoCalifornia’s gas prices are near record highs, even after easing slightly in the past few days. And the craziest thing is that Hawaii pays much less per gallon. California’s average price Tuesday, Oct. 20, for a gallon of regular unleaded…
Chicago taxi fuel surcharge in effect as average gas price remains over $5CBS News · 3 days agoCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Chicago taxi fuel…
Too little, too late: Trump takes on gas prices as fuel costs hamper his midterm hopesthe Guardian · 3 days agoPolls show US voters are deeply upset by high gas prices and are likely to punish Republicans in the midterms as a result With fewer than two weeks until the midterms, US voters are unlikely to see relief on one of this election cycle’s…
Trump Faces Supermajority Disapproval on Gas Prices 2 Weeks Before MidtermsNewsweek · 4 days agoOct 21, 2026 at 03:55 PM EDT Oct 21, 2026 at 04:40 PM EDT Nearly three-quarters of likely voters disapprove of how President Donald Trump has handled gas prices, with the midterm elections 13 days away and his overall approval rating at…
Letter: Blame Dems for gas prices, inflationTelegraphHerald.com · 37 h agoI find it amusing to watch Democrats running for office and complaining about high prices. Inflation is driven by excess government spending and we are well aware how Democrats love to tax and spend. Letâs not forget when Democrats were…

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What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?

$107.27high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $107.27.

Reaches $100>99%
Reaches $10567%

Falls to $9528%
Falls to $909%

Already reached: ↑ $90, ↑ $95, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↑ $90

Finance › Commodities

US gas prices tomorrow (Oct 26, 2026)

$4.29median

$4.25$4.34

Median $4.29Middle half $4.28 – $4.29

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US gas prices this week (Oct 26, 2026)

$4.29median

$4.08$4.52

Median $4.29Middle half $4.28 – $4.30

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Diesel price on Election Day (November 3, 2026)

$6.39median

$4.20$7.40

Median $6.39Middle half $6.27 – $6.54

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New Jersey gas price at year-end 2026

4.51median

3.605.10

Median 4.51Middle half 3.94 – 4.66

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What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of October 19 2026?

$102.50high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $102.50.

Reaches $100>99%
Reaches $105<1%

Falls to $95<1%
Falls to $90<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAAA

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 9:55 AM ET

Traded$2.4K (52,003 contracts)

Today$4

At stake$949

In the news36 headlines today, 488 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If average regular gas prices for California are strictly lower than $4.10 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions