Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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WA-03 House winner? (2026)
The odds
91%Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez91%
- John Braun10%▲ 2
How the odds have moved
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez: 91% on Oct 20, 91% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 91% | 91¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 76.5K | |
| John Braun | 10% | ▲ 2 | 9¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 199.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: WA- House, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, John Braun
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With a U.S. House seat at stake, Washington Republican John Braun targets trans girls in sportsJohn Braun is championing Initiative 638 in a race against Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez that could help determine control of the House. Washington Sen. John Braun looks out onto the factory floor at Braun Northwest’s Chehalis… -
WATCH LIVE: Speaker Johnson holds campaign rally for John Braun in WashingtonHouse Speaker Mike Johnson campaigns alongside congressional nominee John Braun in Chehalis, Washington, as Republicans work to secure a key House seat in the 2026 election cycle. WATCH LIVE: Speaker Johnson holds campaign rally for John… -
Republican DA launches investigation to find culprit behind fake trans mailers in TexasA West Texas district attorney is also seeking answers as to who is impersonating the Transgender Education Network of Texas. Community members hold signs as the Cypress Fairbanks ISD School Board weighs a purposed parent policy, which… -
In one of the West's few swing races, a Democrat tries to keep a Trump districtLONG BEACH, Wash. — Tourist dollars are drying up in this small town at the edge of the Pacific Ocean. Foot traffic is down. Visitors have less to spend on souvenirs. And beachgoers now bring packed lunches instead of stopping at Captain… -
Pete Hegseth wants trans troops gone. U.S. Navy & USMC review boards keep finding reasons to keep themNavy and Marine Corps boards voted for retention in nine of 12 cases, challenging an administration that treats transgender identity as grounds to end a military career. The United States Marine Corps Silent Drill Platoon onstage during… -
Washington doctors warn against ballot measure’s invasive sex checks for girls who want to play school sportsMore than 100 pediatricians and nurses have joined the campaign against Initiative 638, which they say would create harmful barriers for young athletes. A general view of an exam room inside a medical clinic in Granite City, Illinois, on… -
In tight WA House race, sparks fly over safety at challenger’s businessWASHINGTON, D.C. â John Braun often points to his credentials as the president of his family's manufacturing company in his campaign to unseat U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Javascript is required to use this website. Washington… -
Advocate NL 10/23/26Hello and Happy Friday, folks! During a Thursday afternoon press briefing, Mimi Marziani, an attorney representing TENT, announced that the organization had filed a petition to uncover who is behind the impersonation campaign, stating it… - In final weeks of 3rd District campaign, Braun champions ban on transgender girls in girls’ sportsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Stay informed with OPB on the Oregon governor's race and other regional contests in Oregon and Southwest Washington at our ballot guide. Washington state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, a Republican…
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Bipartisan US Lawmakers Push Back On Trump's Russia Policy, Vow Support For UkraineWASHINGTON -- A bipartisan group of US lawmakers is stepping up efforts to defend Ukraine, challenging President Donald Trump’s decision to ease restrictions on Russian energy imports and demanding guarantees that Kyiv will retain access… -
House Speaker makes case for unseating MGP in Washington’s heated congressional raceHouse Speaker Mike Johnson returned to Washington state on Wednesday to campaign alongside Republican John Braun, a sign of how important the state senator’s bid to unseat Democratic U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is for the GOP’s hopes… -
Spending tops $20M in Washington state’s hottest congressional racePublished 1:30 am Wednesday, October 21, 2026 By Jerry Cornfield Washington State Standard State Senate Republican Leader John Braun and Democratic U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez are dueling in southwest Washington’s 3rd Congressional…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions