Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%
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OH-09 House winner? (2026)
The odds
77%Marcy Kaptur
- Marcy Kaptur77%▼ 1
- Derek Merrin23%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Marcy Kaptur: 72% on Oct 20, 77% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcy Kaptur | 77% | ▼ 1 | 76¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 52.9K |
| Derek Merrin | 23% | ▲ 1 | 22¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 52.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OH- House, Marcy Kaptur, Derek Merrin
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Why Democrats are looking to Katherine Clark to bring ‘order’ to the HouseThe Massachusetts progressive could be the first woman to serve as House majority leader. She’ll have her hands full. Clark, seen Oct. 10 in Cleveland, insisted a House Democratic majority "isn't going to be my-way-or-the-highway from any… -
How tech became the villain of the US midtermsDatacenters, AI and distaste for the billionaires developing it has soured Americans on big tech The campaign ad begins with a clear, idyllic stream that suddenly turns sludge-brown as two concrete datacenters slam onto its banks. Another… -
House Fight Tilts Blue, But GOP Still Has Escape RoutesDemocrats head into the next House battle with the kind of opening they have not seen in years. The national mood has turned sharply against the president in the White House, Republicans are dealing with voter anger over costs, and early… - Local farmers make case to congresswomanSandusky Register â This past week, U.S Marcy Kaptur, D-Toledo, visited the Berlin Heights area and stopped by Burnham Orchards to talk about issues that could change the future of families across Ohio Alexis Burnham, vice president…
- Musk sets sights on KapturSpending big to unseat longtime Congresswoman FINDLAY â The world's richest man is, once again, trying to defeat U.S Elon Musk tried to help Republican candidate Derek Merrin in 2024, but Kaptur won a narrow victory In the current…
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AOC Has A ‘Girl’s Girl’ Explanation For Defending ‘Trans Rights’The New York congresswoman doubled down on her support for transgender ideology. Leftist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) claimed being a “girl’s girl” led her to stand up for the rights of men who identify as women. The New York… -
Democrats Split as Russia Sanctions Fight Turns Into Tariff ClashHouse Democrats are heading into a vote this week divided over a Russia sanctions bill that has become as much about presidential trade power as it is about punishing Moscow. Party leaders are publicly lining up against the measure, but… -
UAW Members Out in Force in Key Midterm Districts Could Shape the Next CongressThe 2026 field program is also an opportunity to hear from members and develop a working-class-led political agenda for the new Congress in 2027. The UAW is prioritizing must-win races in districts where the union’s membership density… -
A ‘coup’ in Congress? Democrats are gaming out a Jan. 3 nightmareHouse Speaker Mike Johnson speaks during a Get Out the Vote rally for Derek Merrin, Republican nominee for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, in Defiance, Ohio on Oct. 8, 2026. Democrats panicked over President Donald Trump’s pre-election… -
House Republicans Subpoena New Jersey Secretary of State for Information on the State Registering Over 6,000 Noncitizens to VoteWASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH), House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil (R-WI), House Judiciary Subcommittee on Oversight Chairman Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ), and House Administration… -
‘Divorced from reality’: House leader Jeffries says Dems ‘hold firm’ in midterm race—and says Trump undermines ‘democracy, freedom and dignity’House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday the election climate is holding firm for Democrats as he campaigned for Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a heavily contested Ohio congressional district that is crucial for majority control of the… -
Election 2026 updates: Obama coming to Cleveland, videos from recent campaign stopsThe Buckeye State appears to again be a major political battleground. See what’s happening around the state without watching an endless stream of attack ads. Former President Barack Obama will campaign alongside Ohio Democrats this week…
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All house ›NC-13 House Election Winner
67%Brad Knott (R)
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MN-05 House winner?
94%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar94%
- John Nagel5%
- DeVelle Jackson1%
NC-13 House winner?
70%Brad Knott
- Brad Knott70%▼ 10
- Paul Barringer30%▲ 10
NC-03 House winner?
67%Greg Murphy
- Greg Murphy67%▼ 5
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NY-17 House winner? (2026)
60%Cait Conley
- Cait Conley60%▼ 1
- Mike Lawler40%▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions