New pandemic in 2026?
4%chance
Install
Monthly Average United States Temperature (Dec 2026)
The odds
36.9median
2943
Median 36.9
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 30 | 65% | $1.53 | ||||
| Above 31 | 65% | $1.53 | 30.00 | |||
| Above 32 | 65% | $1.53 | 50.00 | |||
| Above 33 | 65% | $1.53 | 70.00 | |||
| Above 34 | 65% | $1.53 | 80.00 | |||
| Above 35 | 65% | $1.53 | 90.00 | |||
| Above 36 | 58% | $1.72 | 500 | |||
| Above 37 | 49% | $2.04 | 490 | |||
| Above 38 | 37% | $2.70 | 380 | |||
| Above 39 | 35% | $2.86 | 360 | |||
| Above 40 | 20% | $5.00 | 190 | |||
| Above 41 | <1% | |||||
| Above 42 | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Monthly Average United States Temperature
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All climate ›New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
4%chance▼ 1
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
74%chance▲ 2
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
71%chance▲ 1
EU meets its 2030 climate goals?
45%chance▲ 2
US meets its climate goals? (2025/2030 goals)
85%By 2030
1,7256,502
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.