New pandemic in 2026?
4%chance
Install
US Temperature (Dec 2026)
The odds
56.1median
51.658
Median 56.1Middle half 55.0 – 56.5
How the odds have moved
Median: 56.1 on Oct 20, 56.1 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 52.1 | 77% | $1.31 | ||||
| Above 52.6 | 77% | $1.31 | ||||
| Above 53.1 | 77% | $1.31 | ||||
| Above 53.6 | 77% | $1.31 | 40.00 | |||
| Above 53.8 | 77% | $1.31 | 70.00 | |||
| Above 54 | 77% | $1.31 | 110 | |||
| Above 54.1 | 77% | $1.31 | 120 | |||
| Above 54.21 | 77% | $1.31 | 230 | |||
| Above 54.4 | 77% | $1.31 | 270 | |||
| Above 54.6 | 77% | $1.31 | 380 | |||
| Above 54.8 | 76% | $1.32 | 430 | |||
| Above 55.5 | 72% | $1.39 | 600 | |||
| Above 56 | 61% | $1.64 | 570 | |||
| Above 56.5 | 24% | $4.17 | 210 | |||
| Above 57 | 6% | $16.67 | ||||
| Above 57.5 | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Temperature
Search ›-
Sunny stretch of weather continues with fall-like temperaturesCBS News - The 5:33 | Legacy of the LIRR Massacre - On The Dot with David Schechter: Wildfires & Climate Change Sunny stretch of weather continues with fall-like temperatures Union workers locked out of largest East Coast oil refinery Feds… -
Temperatures climb into 80s as rain chances remain slim across North TexasUpdated on: October 20, 2026 / 7:28 AM CDT / CBS Texas It's another crisp fall morning, Tuesday, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s across North Texas. Have the light jacket handy and grab your sunglasses for the afternoon. Temperatures… -
Temperatures lower to the early 80s and late 70s throughout South FloridaCBS News Miami is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WFOR-TV and channel 4, CBS News Miami offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Temperatures lower to… -
California's latest Climate Change Assessment looks at what rising temperatures could mean for SoCalOctober 19, 2026 / 10:33 PM PDT / CBS LA California's fifth Climate Change Assessment was released on Monday, detailing what rising temperatures could mean for the ocean, the Golden State coastline and residents' safety. The state began… -
California's fifth Climate Change Assessment looks at what rising temperatures could mean for SoCalCBS News California's fifth Climate Change Assessment looks at what rising temperatures could mean for SoCal Los Coyotes Diagonal | Look At This! Reflect Orbital tests bright night tests catch residents off guard Dozens face federal… -
South Florida to see lower rain chances, cooler temperatures this weekCBS News Baltimore 8am CBS News Boston 8am CBS News Chicago 7am CBS News Colorado This Morning 6am CBS News Los Angeles Mornings 5am CBS News Miami 8am CBS News New York 8am CBS News Texas 7am -
Temperatures climb in North Texas this weekCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm Your Stories From Your Community Reporters CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
Minnesota’s warm, dry streak continues, with temperatures nearing 80 by Thursday | Oct. 19, 2026A ridge of high pressure keeps the jet stream and cold air to the north, WCCO’s meteorologist says. Highs reach nearly 70 in the Twin Cities Wednesday, the mid 70s Thursday and close to 80 in parts of south central Minnesota. Minnesota’s… -
Super El Niño forces dramatic color shift in the Pacific — as record-breaking temperatures threaten marine lifeIt’s a true blue natural phenomenon. In the wake of developing a “mutant” second arm, this year’s Super El Niño weather system is also apparently changing the face of the Pacific Ocean. Satellite images from NASA show that over the past… -
Expect a beautiful fall week across North Texas with cool mornings, temperatures in the 70s and 80sOctober 19, 2026 / 6:30 AM CDT / CBS Texas It will be a beautiful and mild start to the week. Expect high clouds to dissipate throughout Monday, mild winds from the southeast and temperatures to top out in the upper 70s by the afternoon… -
Seasonal Temperatures ContinueFOX 2 Detroit Milder air coming into the region with 40s overnight displacing the 30s. Afternoon highs stay in the 60s. Dry weather continues. Meteorologist Lori Pinson has your forecast. -
More sunny days ahead, seasonable temperaturesFantastic fall weather continues across the Susquehanna Valley through the weekend It's a clear, chilly start to the day. Expect morning lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s. High pressure will continue to dominate our weather this week. It…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.