Will Google (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?
30%chance▲ 10
Install
Will Merck (MRK) beat quarterly earnings?
The odds
77%chance▲ 8
How the odds have moved
Yes: 83% on Oct 19, 77% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 10 PM ET84% → 77%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 77% | ▲ 8 | 75¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | $2.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Merck
Search ›-
Merck ADC drug cut risk of death by one-third in advanced endometrial cancerAdam Feuerstein is a senior writer and biotech columnist for STAT, reporting on the crossroads of drug development, business, Wall Street, and biotechnology. He is also a cohost of STAT's weekly "The Readout LOUD" podcast and the author of… -
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Shareholder/Analyst Presentation - Slideshow2026-10-26. The following slide deck was published by Merck & Co., Inc. The following slide deck was published by Merck & Co., Inc. in conjunction with this event. - Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Shareholder/Analyst Call TranscriptMerck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Shareholder/Analyst Call October 26, 2026 2:30 PM EDTCompany ParticipantsPeter Dannenbaum - Vice President of Investor... Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Shareholder/Analyst Call October 26, 2026 2:30 PM EDT Peter…
-
Merck's sac-TMT significantly cuts death risk in endometrial cancerMerck’s sac-TMT cut death risk 32% in endometrial cancer and won FDA priority review for the indication. Read more here. - Phase 3 data for Merck's (MRK) sacituzumab tirumotecan (sac-TMT) showed that the antibody-drug conjugate reduced the… -
What Do New China Biotech Curbs Mean For Merck (MRK) Stock?Merck (NYSE:MRK) faces new U.S. Treasury restrictions on collaborations with certain Chinese biotech and AI firms announced in October 2026. This policy move targets U.S. investment and partnership flows into Chinese companies involved in… -
ESMO 2026: Analysts warm to Merck, Moderna’s cancer vaccine after frustrating data leakWith Merck and Moderna days removed from a data leak and the conference presentation in the rearview, analysts have softened on the partners’ personalized mRNA-based cancer vaccine, with many now agreeing that the treatment combo elicited… -
5 things you should know about intismeran, the Moderna-Merck cancer vaccinePhase 3 data fueled buzz about Moderna’s personalized melanoma “vaccine.” paired with Merck's Keytruda. The drama surrounding intismeran included an embargo violation and headlines that the treatment hadn't lived up to its hype. The phase… -
HKSTP Partners with Leading Science and Technology Company Merck to Open a New Chapter in I&T CollaborationDrutschmann, Consul General of Germany (Second row middle), Ms Cordelia Chung, Chairman of HKSTP (Second row first from left), and Mr Peter Yan, Director-General of the OASES (Second row first from ... HKSTP Partners with Leading Science… - Merck’s therapy extends survival in hard-to-treat uterine cancer patientsOct 26 (Reuters) – Merck’s experimental targeted drug helped women with advanced endometrial cancer live longer and kept their disease in check compared with standard treatment, according to late-stage trial data presented at the ESMO…
-
Merck’s Endometrial Cancer Drug Cuts Risk Of Death By 32% – FDA Decision Due By June 2027Merck (MRK), on Monday, reported that Phase 3 of its experimental cancer drug Sacituzumab Tirumotecan (Sac-TMT) helped patients with advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer live longer than those receiving just chemotherapy. The results… -
Merck's melanoma vaccine trial shows reduced recurrence or death from skin cancerMerck presented its mRNA melanoma vaccine trial data at a European cancer conference this weekend. Results are promising: The vaccine reduces recurrence and death alongside an immunotherapy drug. Merck's melanoma vaccine trial shows… -
Merck Announces TroFuse-005 Trial Evaluating Sacituzumab Tirumotecan (Sac-TMT) Met Primary Endpoints of Overall Survival (OS) and Progression-Free Survival (PFS) in Certain Patients With Advanced or Recurrent Endometrial CancerSac-TMT is the first TROP2 ADC to improve OS and PFS compared to chemotherapy in patients with advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer who have progressed after platinum-based chemotherapy and anti-PD-1/L1 immunotherapy in a global Phase…
Related markets
All earnings ›Will Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) beat quarterly earnings?
55%chance▲ 9
Will Cboe (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?
47%chance▼ 14
Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?
72%chance▲ 3
Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings?
45%chance▼ 13
Will MGM Resorts (MGM) beat quarterly earnings?
19%chance▲ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions