Where will it rain on Oct 26, 2026?
41%New York City
00
Install
Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?
The last odds before it closed
>99%16°C
- 16°C>99%▲ 5
- 11°C<1%▼ 2
- 12°C<1%▼ 3
- 13°C<1%▼ 2
- 14°C<1%▼ 1
- 15°C<1%▼ 1
- 17°C<1%▼ 1
- 18°C<1%▼ 1
- 19°C or higher<1%
How the odds have moved
16°C: 95% on Oct 20, >99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ET16°C: 95% → 74%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16°C | >99% | ▲ 5 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $83.5K | |
| 11°C | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $8.6K | ||
| 12°C | <1% | ▼ 3 | 0¢ | $8.2K | ||
| 13°C | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $7.2K | ||
| 14°C | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $26.6K | ||
| 15°C | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $39.2K | ||
| 17°C | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $65K | ||
| 18°C | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $48.2K | ||
| 19°C or higher | <1% | 0¢ | $116K | |||
| 9°C or below | <1% | 0¢ | $10.6K | |||
| 10°C | <1% | 0¢ | $352 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Cape Town weather
Search ›-
WEATHER: Pretoria to hit 35°C on Friday as Johannesburg reaches 31°C and Cape Town stays mild22 October 2026 06:21 Sundowns treat Williete SC clash as a final in CAF Champions League battle 22 October 2026 06:07 SAPS must ensure elections are conducted in a safe environment: Cachalia 22 October 2026 06:06 Johannesburg, Durban and… -
WEATHER TODAY: Heat wave in Limpopo’s Western Bushveld, slight rain for Cape TownHome » News » Weather » WEATHER TODAY: Heat wave in Limpopo’s Western Bushveld, slight rain for Cape Town Weather for Wednesday: Richards Bay climbs to 36°C and Musina to 35°C, while Gauteng, the Free State and North West stay dry under… -
WEATHER: Heatwave conditions in Pretoria and Johannesburg as Cape Town braces for morning rain on Thursday21 October 2026 14:12 MTBPS 2026: Godongwana directs millions to Commission Inquiries 21 October 2026 14:05 Fannie Masemola vows to quickly replace disgraced former deputy Shadrack Sibiya 21 October 2026 14:00 Hyron Andrews died from… -
WEATHER: Hot in Gauteng, rainy and windy in Cape Town on Wednesday20 October 2026 08:59 Sibiya knew he was committing a crime when allegedly sexually grooming minor: Court 20 October 2026 08:57 Extortion case against Joe Sibanyoni and co-accused postponed to April 20 October 2026 08:42 AKA’s father…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions