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Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?
The odds
>99%Mbappé
- Mbappé>99%▲ 31
- Yamal<1%▼ 31
How the odds have moved
Mbappé: 69% on Oct 20, >99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 9 PM ETMbappé: 74% → >99%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mbappé | >99% | ▲ 31 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1.4M | |
| Yamal | <1% | ▼ 31 | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1.4M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ballon d'Or, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal
Search ›- Has Kylian Mbappe ever won the Ballon d'Or? Real Madrid's previous record and rankingsAt 27 years old, Kylian Mbappe is already considered one of the greatest players in the history of football. As the highest goal scorer in the history of the FIFA World Cup, and one of the top goal scorers every year for almost the last…
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Ballon d'Or 2026 predictions: Did Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal or Kylian Mbappe win Golazo Network vote?Jaydee Dyer and Ian Joy are joined by Phil Kitromilides to break down an exciting El Clásico that Real Madrid won 2-1 over Barcelona. Ballon d'Or 2026 predictions: Did Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal or Kylian Mbappe win Golazo Network vote?… - Ballon d'Or site names Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé as winners in blunderThe official Ballon d'Or website mistakenly published articles naming three different players as winners of the 2026 men's award, hours before Monday's ceremony in London.
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Ballon d'Or chaos! Official website bizarrely lists Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappe as winners hours before London ceremonyThe football world has been left in a state of confusion after the official Ballon d'Or website appeared to announce three different winners just hours before the gala. Ballon d'Or chaos! Official website bizarrely lists Harry Kane, Lamine… -
The Ballon d'Or battle is down to 10! Lionel Messi, Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland headline star-studded shortlistLionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, and Lamine Yamal lead the 2026 Ballon d'Or top 10 finalists as the rankings for the top 30 players are officially confirmed. Help us verify your age by providing an honest response. This site contains gambling… -
Ballon d'Or website blunder causes confusionHarry Kane could become the first Englishman since 2001 to win the Ballon d'Or For a moment, it seemed as though Harry Kane's dreams of winning the Ballon d'Or had come true. It was shortly after 17:15 GMT on Monday when an article from… -
Harry Kane Primed To Pip Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe To Ballon d'Or GloryKane struck a remarkable 73 goals in 65 games for Bayern Munich and England last season, leading the German giants to a league and cup double and England to the semi-finals of the World Cup London: England captain Harry Kane is the… -
Ballon d'Or LIVE: Will Harry Kane become the first English winner since Michael Owen as he looks to beat Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappe to prestigious award?Follow Daily Mail Sport's live blog of the Ballon d'Or awards ceremony as Harry Kane looks to become the first English winner since Michael Owen in 2001. There are multiple awards (more on those in a bit), but in terms of the Men's Ballon… -
Ballon d'Or website sparks confusion after naming Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe and Lamine Yamal as winnersFrance Football have sparked controversy ahead of the Ballon d’Or ceremony after accidentally publishing three separate profiles declaring Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe and Lamine Yamal as the winner of the prestigious award. According to a… -
Real Madrid to end Ballon d'Or boycott with Kylian Mbappé nominated - sourcesReal Madrid will have representation at the Ballon d'Or award again, with Kylian Mbappé leading the team's delegation at the event on Monday in London, sources have told ESPN. Madrid boycotted the last two editions of the event after being… -
Ballon d'Or plunged into CHAOS as esteemed event announces Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe and Lamine Yamal ALL as winners on official website just hours before the ceremonyHarry Kane, Kylian Mbappe and Lamine Yamal were all bizarrely listed as winners of the Ballon d'Or on the organisation's website hours before the ceremony began in London. The trio have all been viewed among the leading candidates to land… - Kane prematurely announced as Ballon d'Or winner - but he wasn't only oneHarry Kane could become the first Englishman since 2001 to win the Ballon d'Or For a moment, it seemed as though Harry Kane's dreams of winning the Ballon d'Or had come true. It was shortly after 17:15 GMT on Monday when an article from…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions