2030 FIFA World Cup Champion

Kalshi Sports › Soccer Closes Jan 14, 2031 · $3 today · $62K traded · $21.2K at stake · prices read 11 min ago

The odds

16%Spain

Spain16%
France12%
Argentina7%
England7%
Brazil6%
Portugal5%
Germany5%
Netherlands3%
Morocco3%
USA3%
Norway3%
Italy2%

70 more

Mexico2%
Belgium1%
Colombia1%
Japan1%
Croatia1%
Korea Republic<1%
Uruguay<1%
Greece<1%
Qatar<1%
Switzerland<1%
Canada<1%
Turkiye<1%
Paraguay<1%
Slovakia<1%
Ivory Coast<1%
Egypt<1%
Cape Verde<1%
Ireland<1%
Wales<1%
Ecuador<1%
Ukraine<1%
Poland<1%
Bolivia<1%
Cameroon<1%
Venezuela<1%
Denmark<1%
South Africa<1%
Czechia<1%
Australia<1%
Romania<1%
IR Iran<1%
Senegal<1%
Austria<1%
Ghana<1%
Chile<1%
Israel<1%
Mali<1%
United Arab Emirates<1%
Finland<1%
Northern Ireland<1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina<1%
Scotland<1%
Haiti<1%
Curacao<1%
Tunisia<1%
Albania<1%
Sweden<1%
New Zealand<1%
Saudi Arabia<1%
Iraq<1%
Suriname<1%
Algeria<1%
Jordan<1%
Uzbekistan<1%
Jamaica<1%
Congo DR<1%
New Caledonia<1%
Panama<1%
Costa Rica<1%
Nigeria<1%

How the odds have moved

Spain: 16% on Oct 20, 16% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Spain	16%	15¢	16¢	$6.25	248.7K
France	12%	11¢	13¢	$7.75	69.3K
Argentina	7%	7¢	8¢	$12.20	49.7K
England	7%	7¢	8¢	$13.33	20.4K
Brazil	6%	6¢	6¢	$17.86	17.1K
Portugal	5%	4¢	6¢	$16.95	21.5K
Germany	5%	5¢	5¢	$20.00	34.2K
Netherlands	3%	2¢	3¢	$32.26	4.1K
Morocco	3%	2¢	3¢	$35.71	19.2K
USA	3%	3¢	3¢	$38.46	40.9K
Norway	3%	1¢	4¢	$26.32	22.0K
Italy	2%	2¢	2¢	$41.67	25.1K
Mexico	2%	2¢	3¢	$40.00	49.3K
Belgium	1%	1¢	1¢	$71.43	9.1K
Colombia	1%	1¢	1¢	$90.91	10.9K
Japan	1%	1¢	1¢	$83.33	15.4K
Croatia	1%	0¢	1¢		12.8K
Korea Republic	<1%	0¢	1¢		4.6K
Uruguay	<1%	0¢	1¢		10.9K
Greece	<1%	0¢	1¢		10.8K
Qatar	<1%	0¢	0¢		24.7K
Switzerland	<1%	0¢	0¢		5.2K
Canada	<1%	0¢	0¢		567
Turkiye	<1%	0¢	0¢		1.4K
Paraguay	<1%	0¢	0¢		6.8K
Slovakia	<1%	0¢	0¢		2.3K
Ivory Coast	<1%	0¢	0¢		13.2K
Egypt	<1%	0¢	0¢		9.2K
Cape Verde	<1%		1¢		9.9K
Ireland	<1%		0¢		2.8K
Wales	<1%		0¢
Ecuador	<1%	0¢	0¢		2.6K
Ukraine	<1%	0¢	0¢		3.6K
Poland	<1%		0¢		334
Bolivia	<1%		0¢		500
Cameroon	<1%		0¢		500
Venezuela	<1%	0¢	0¢		11.7K
Denmark	<1%	0¢	0¢		47.00
South Africa	<1%		0¢		500
Czechia	<1%	0¢	0¢
Australia	<1%	0¢	0¢		123
Romania	<1%	0¢	0¢		1.7K
IR Iran	<1%		0¢		500
Senegal	<1%		0¢		6.6K
Austria	<1%	0¢	0¢
Ghana	<1%	0¢	0¢
Chile	<1%	0¢	0¢
Israel	<1%	0¢	0¢		531
Mali	<1%		0¢		500
United Arab Emirates	<1%	0¢	0¢		463
Finland	<1%		0¢		47.00
Northern Ireland	<1%		0¢		500
Bosnia and Herzegovina	<1%		0¢		500
Scotland	<1%		0¢		100
Haiti	<1%		0¢		2.3K
Curacao	<1%		0¢		972
Tunisia	<1%		0¢		500
Albania	<1%		0¢		685
Sweden	<1%		0¢		1.1K
New Zealand	<1%		0¢		500
Saudi Arabia	<1%		0¢		2.7K
Iraq	<1%		0¢		47.00
Suriname	<1%		0¢		500
Algeria	<1%		0¢		500
Jordan	<1%		0¢		1.2K
Uzbekistan	<1%		0¢		500
Jamaica	<1%		0¢		500
Congo DR	<1%		0¢		2.9K
New Caledonia	<1%		0¢		500
Panama	<1%		0¢		500
Costa Rica	<1%		0¢		545
Nigeria	<1%		0¢		872
Serbia	<1%		0¢
Slovenia	<1%		0¢
Hungary	<1%		0¢		500
Peru	<1%		0¢		297
Georgia	<1%		0¢		500
Iceland	<1%		0¢		500
Burkina Faso	<1%		0¢		3.6K
Honduras	<1%		0¢		1.6K
North Macedonia	<1%		0¢		1.5K
Kosovo	<1%		0¢		1.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: World Cup, FIFA World Cup

Search ›

Uncertainty grows over 2026 FIFA World Cup telecast in BangladeshThe Daily Star · 3 days agoThis issue is the focus of today’s Star Explains Copyright: Any unauthorized use or reproduction of The Daily Star content for commercial purposes Prepare our children for the world, not just exams Bangladesh cannot end child marriage…
FOOTBALL: Report states Los Angeles-area hotels were disappointed during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with June occupancy 2% lower than in 2024The Sports Examiner · 3 days ago≡ FIFA WORLD CUP 2026 IN L.A. ≡ That’s the opening of the “Post-World Cup Impact: LA City Hotels” report, released last week by the Hospitality Education and Research Organization (HERO) of Los Angeles, a project of the Hotel Association…
Ghana U-15 Boys Head to Azerbaijan Ahead of FIFA World Cup And FestivalGhana Sports Online · 2 days agoGhana’s U-15 Boys team have left Accra for Azerbaijan ahead of their participation in the FIFA U-15 Boys World Cup and Festival, with five group matches scheduled across three days. The team have been drawn in Group W alongside Uzbekistan…
Ex-tennis pro Megan Rose appointed to lead 2031 men’s Rugby World Cup in USthe Guardian · 3 days agoTournament coming to the US for the first time Rose says tournament is a huge opportunity World Rugby has appointed Megan Rose, an American tennis pro turned United States Tennis Association (USTA) executive, as managing director of the…
Jackson Martinez Goal 81' | Japan v Colombia | 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™ - FIFAFIFA · 3 days agoJackson Martinez Goal 81' | Japan v Colombia | 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™ FIFA
Ivan Perisic Goal 68' | Croatia v England | 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia™ - FIFAFIFA · 3 days agoIvan Perisic Goal 68' | Croatia v England | 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia™ FIFA
Vickery's journey from World Cup winner to bodybuilder at 50BBC Sport · 2 days agoVickery's journey from Rugby World Cup winner to bodybuilder It could have been deep in the bowels of English rugby's national stadium in Twickenham. Instead, Phil Vickery was backstage at the Physical Culture Show in Hull, waiting for his…
Pochettino: US Fans Finally Grasp Soccer's Scale at World CupYahoo Sports · 3 days agoAfter the United States opened the 2026 World Cup with a 4-1 win over Paraguay in front of 70,492 fans at SoFi Stadium, head coach Mauricio Pochettino didn't start with the scoreline. He started with the crowd. "They were amazing,"…
Ruck missing brother's wedding to play at World CupBBC Sport · 3 days agoWales stand-off Amberley Ruck will miss her brother's wedding on Saturday as she's playing for Wales women at the Rugby League World Cup. Wales take on Samoa on Friday (07:45 BST), while Ruck's brother and his partner Meg will be getting…
Wheelhouse & Peyton Manning's Omaha Invest In BBQ World Cup & ExpoDeadline · 3 days agoEXCLUSIVE: Peyton Manning and Brent Montgomery are grilling up a major new investment in competitive barbequing. Manning’s Omaha Productions and Montgomery’s Wheelhouse have invested in the BBQ World Cup & Expo, which they believe can…
Is Emma Aicher the top alpine skiing World Cup favourite?Yahoo Sports · 3 days agoEmma Aicher cannot hide that she is aiming for the overall World Cup title but still doesn't want to fuel expectations ahead of Saturday's start of the alpine skiing World Cup season. The 22-year-old came close last season when she…
USA U-17 Women Set FIFA World Cup Record With Historic 17-0 Victory Over SamoaOloriSuperGal · 4 days agoThe United States U-17 women’s national team made history after securing a record-breaking 17-0 victory over Samoa at the FIFA U-17 Women’s World Cup in Morocco on Monday. The emphatic result established the USA U-17 women’s team as the…

Related markets

All soccer ›

Sports › SoccerLive 2-1 · 2H 90'

Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC

Aston Villa FC>99%▲ 81

Draw<1%▼ 21

Manchester City FC<1%▼ 60

Sports › SoccerFinal 0-3 · FT 90'

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid<1%▼ 54

Draw<1%▼ 25

Elche CF>99%▲ 79

Sports › SoccerFinal 2-0 · VFT 70'

Como 1907 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio

Como 1907>99%▲ 34

Draw<1%▼ 19

US Sassuolo Calcio<1%▼ 14

Sports › SoccerFinal 0-2 · FT 70'

Cagliari Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909

Cagliari Calcio<1%▼ 30

Draw<1%▼ 31

Bologna FC 1909>99%▲ 61

Sports › SoccerLive 0-1 · 2H 90'

Virtus Entella vs. Mantova 1911

Virtus Entella<1%▼ 42

Draw<1%▼ 30

Mantova 1911>99%▲ 72

Sports › SoccerLive 2-3 · 2H 79'

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SV Werder Bremen

1. FSV Mainz 052%▼ 53

Draw20%▼ 3

SV Werder Bremen77%▲ 56

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFIFA, ESPN

Trading closesJan 14, 2031 10:00 PM ET

Traded$62K (830,662 contracts)

Today$3

This week$62K

At stake$21.2K

In the news2 headlines today, 28 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Mexico is the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.