UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Francis Marshall (Featherweight, Prelims)
Gaston Bolaños50%
Francis Marshall51%
Install
Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
The odds
91%Justin Gaethje
- Justin Gaethje91%▲ 3
- Arman Tsarukyan8%▼ 3
- Ilia Topuria1%
- Islam Makhachev<1%
- Max Holloway<1%
- Charles Oliveira<1%
- Dan Hooker<1%
- Mateusz Gamrot<1%
- Paddy Pimblett<1%
- Benoit Saint-Denis<1%
- Alexander Volkanovski<1%
- Mauricio Ruffy<1%
How the odds have moved
Justin Gaethje: 84% on Oct 20, 91% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 3 PM ETJustin Gaethje: 86% → 91%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 91% | ▲ 3 | 91¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 240.1K |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 8% | ▼ 3 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 434.4K |
| Ilia Topuria | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 216.7K | |
| Islam Makhachev | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 29.7K | ||
| Max Holloway | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 30.3K | ||
| Charles Oliveira | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 98.4K | ||
| Dan Hooker | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 5.5K | ||
| Mateusz Gamrot | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 1.9K | ||
| Paddy Pimblett | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 121.3K | ||
| Benoit Saint-Denis | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 15.8K | ||
| Alexander Volkanovski | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 30.4K | ||
| Mauricio Ruffy | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 23.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Lightweight Title Holder, Justin Gaethje, Arman Tsarukyan
Search ›- MMA icon justifies picking Ilia Topuria over Justin Gaethje in potential rematch, talks Paddy Pimblett grudge matchUFC megastar Ilia Topuria has lately been linked to a Justin Gaethje rematch and a grudge match with Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett. Ilia Topuria has received words of high praise from an MMA legend, who's picked him to avenge his defeat…
-
RAF 14 results: Arman Tsarukyan stomps on Dillon Danis after 10-0 shutout; Khamzat Chimaev crushes Robbie LawlerThe co-main event features UFC middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev (2-0 RAF) welcoming former UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler (0-0 RAF) to the mats in another crossover wrestling matchup. Friday's card includes two additional… -
Arman Tsarukyan reveals planned UFC title shot for ‘February or March,’ believes Justin Gaethje will retire before thenArman Tsarukyan is closing in on his first-ever UFC lightweight title shot as the surging contender has been told by UFC matchmakers that he’ll fight for gold early next year. “If UFC pay him so much money he will fight,” said Tsarukyan… -
18-1 featherweight wants Alexander Volkanovski to fight him instead of Justin Gaethje after UFC 333Kevin Vallejos hopes Alexander Volkanovski stays at featherweight if he wins at UFC 333. The Australian legend has only lost to Ilia Topuria at 145 pounds, a fact that Movsar Evloev hopes to change on Saturday in Abu Dhabi. Volkanovski… -
Arman Tsarukyan steps on Dillon Danis after shutout victory in RAF 14 main eventArman Tsarukyan nearly set off another riot after winning the RAF 14 main event Arman Tsarukyan nearly set off another chaotic scene when he stepped on Dillon Danis following a dominant win in the RAF 14 main event. One day removed from… -
Chuck Liddell wants Arman Tsarukyan to be punished after sparking another brawl in RAFArman Tsarukyan’s latest Real American Freestyle appearance was not drama-free. The surging wrestling organization does not seem opposed to violent clashes outside of the events, judging by their habit of matching up Dillon Danis against… -
Dillon Danis Faces Brutal Backlash After Getting Stomped by Arman Tsarukyan at RAF 14Oct 24, 2026 | 4:42 AM EDT Arman Tsarukyan and Dillon Danis faced off at the Real American Freestyle 14 (RAF 14) headliner event at Fontainebleau Las Vegas on October 23, 2026. However, their clash turned rather chaotic after the Armenian… -
Arman Tsarukyan boldly calls out Georges St-Pierre for a wrestling match in RAFArman Tsarukyan hopes to tempt ‘GSP’ back to competition. The UFC lightweight star continued to find success between his fights inside the Octagon on Friday night in Las Vegas, where he made another appearance under the Real American… -
Highlights! Arman Tsarukyan steamrolls disrespectful Dillon Danis then steps on his chest | RAF 14Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dillon Danis squared off earlier tonight (Fri., Oct. 23, 2026) at RAF 14 LIVE on FOX Nation from inside Fontainebleau Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Tsarukyan was able to win… -
Dana White Interested in Alexander Volkanovski vs. Justin GaethjeUFC president Dana White says that he is interested in a lightweight superfight between champions Alexander Volkanovski and Justin Gaethje. The 38-year-old Volkanovski recently mentioned that, with his career winding down, he wants the… -
Arman Tsarukyan calls out UFC legend Georges St-Pierre after dominant RAF 14 win: ‘I want to collect all the big names’Arman Tsarukyan is looking to raise the bar after a dominant tech fall win over Dillon Danis last night (Fri., Oct. 23, 2026) at RAF 14 in Las Vegas, Nevada, as the UFC lightweight contender is now 8-1 under the Real American Freestyle… -
Arman Tsarukyan Moves On From Jordan Burroughs Match, Welcomes GSPHome » Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Jordan Burroughs’s first RAF defeat changed Arman Tsarukyan’s matchmaking priorities. At the post-event press conference in Las Vegas, the new crossover champion said he was looking elsewhere and identified…
Related markets
All ufc & boxing ›San Francisco vs Atlanta (SF vs ATL (Oct 25))
Atlanta63%▲ 21
San Francisco38%▼ 20
Sports › SoccerFinal 0-2 · VFT 90'
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC
Chelsea FC<1%▼ 53
Draw<1%▼ 23
Tottenham Hotspur FC>99%▲ 76
Sports › NFLLive 17-17 · Q4 6:45'
Browns vs. Titans
Browns88%▲ 33
Titans13%▼ 33
Sports › EsportsFinal 000-000|1-0|Bo1 · 1/1
LoL: Top Esports vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage
Top Esports>99%
G2 Esports<1%
New York G vs Houston (NYG vs HOU (Oct 25))
Houston33%▼ 48
New York G68%▲ 48
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions