What will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter?
2.18median
0.102.40
Median 2.18Middle half 2.07 – 2.29
Install
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
The odds
2.78median
1.103.40
Median 2.78Middle half 2.61 – 3.08
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.71 on Oct 20, 2.78 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 1.5°C | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.7K | |
| 1.5°C to 1.9°C | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 6.3K | |
| 2.0°C to 2.4°C | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 28.7K | |
| 2.5°C to 2.9°C | 61% | ▼ 5 | 58¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 45.6K |
| At least 3.0°C | 31% | ▼ 1 | 30¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 53.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: El Niño, RONI
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New maps reveal who could see more snow during this year’s super El NiñoThis year’s potentially record-setting El Niño is expected to shape winter weather and snowfall across the US. A new CNN Weather analysis shows how snowfall has changed during El Niño winters, offering clues as to what to expect this… -
San Francisco mayor declares local emergency to speed up El Niño storm prepsCBS News Bay Area is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KPIX-TV and channel 5, CBS News Bay Area offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. San Francisco… -
Watch: San Francisco mayor declares local emergency to prepare for El Niño stormsCBS News Bay Area is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KPIX-TV and channel 5, CBS News Bay Area offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Watch: San… -
San Francisco mayor declares local emergency to prepare for El Niño storm effectsOctober 23, 2026 / 11:35 AM PDT / CBS San Francisco San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie has declared a local emergency to help speed up the city's preparedness for El Niño storm conditions this winter. Lurie was set to announce the emergency… -
BBC Audio | What in the World | Five ways El Niño is affecting weather around the worldEl Niño has been strengthening for several months now and is already having a significant impact on global weather patterns. Countries including Indonesia, India and the United States have been experiencing droughts, floods and heatwaves… -
Highway 37 to be closed this weekend for El Niño prep work. Here's what to know.October 22, 2026 / 9:34 AM PDT / CBS San Francisco Drivers who rely on Highway 37 in the North Bay should expect delays, as Caltrans is closing a stretch of the roadway the entire weekend to make El Niño-related winter storm preparations… - Super El Nino is ‘off the charts’ — and that could be oddly good for NYC, but spell trouble for other parts of US this winterAn off-the-charts Super El Niño that’s expected to peak this winter could be oddly good for New York City — while other parts of the US may be slammed by storms and flooding, forecasters said Thursday. The “behemoth” weather system —…
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El Niño flooding in Peru: 1.2 million people at riskThe Weather Channel El Niño brings floods to Peru, conditions expected to get worse Torrential rainfall flooded streets, markets and homes in Piura, Peru, on Tuesday as El Niño conditions threaten to get worse. Meteorologists expect… -
Unprecedented Super El Niño could bring brutal winter to these US statesA Super El Niño is blowing into town and it could make this upcoming winter especially brutal in many parts of the US. Everything from sudden, unpredictable storms, to bursts of warmer weather in some unlikely places. What is a Super El… -
Sacramento County officials urge residents to get flood insurance as 'Super El Niño' loomsOctober 21, 2026 / 5:56 PM PDT / CBS Sacramento Sacramento County District 5 Supervisor Pat Hume is urging residents to prepare for heavy rain and possible flooding, with the possibility of a 'Super El Niño' looming. The district, which… -
El Niño: UN Concerns and the Future of HumanityUnlike the past, oceans are warming, winds are shifting and monsoons are changing course. As nature loses its rhythm, and stands on uncertain ground, and humanity’s hope for tomorrow’s food hangs in the balance. In such a context, on…
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All weather & climate ›What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
2.66median
0.102.90
Median 2.66Middle half 2.53 – 2.78
Where will it rain on Oct 24, 2026?
16%Denver
00
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 24, 2026?
75.5median
7079
Median 75.5Middle half 75.2 – 75.8
Where will it rain on Oct 25, 2026?
27%New York City
00
Highest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 24, 2026?
74.5median
6776
Median 74.5Middle half 74.2 – 74.7
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.